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General golf betting tips, advice & value guides......

In outright each way and sub markets in golf betting you are working with huge odds and high variance, particularly on the betting exchanges, and often events are priced up in such a way that there is good potential for profit.......
(see also:)
1. What is value betting? A tips gu..
2. First round leader golf betting tips
3. Betfair Exchange golf trading tips
4. Fundamental Golf Betting tips
5. Bankroll, Kelly Criterion, dutching, variance and Staking tips (advanced)
6. Each way, top 10 and 20 golf betting
7. A moneyball style approach to course fit
8. EW golf staking plan vs the field
9. The ultimate guide to betting on golf

As with all betting, a good numerical mind, and a mathematically orientated approach is essential, added to a deep knowledge of your sport. For all golf betting enthusiasts I'm going to outline some tips and areas to take into account when you are looking for an edge in your golf betting:

Course Form - A huge factor when when it comes to choosing your golf betting picks for the week. When I'm researching, I generally take a look over the previous five or so years of the tournament in question (provided it's on the same course) and look for names that repeatedly pop up in the top 30 or so. A player that features regularly generally doesn't do so out of coincidence. Some courses fit the eye and set up well for certain player's attributes and when this happens, they generally play well. Golf is a mental game as much as anything and when a player returns to a place he or she has good vibes in, it often shows.

Current Form - As ever in sport, confidence is crucial and in golf betting, it's vital to pick players in form. A good guide is to look back over the three weeks previous and especially look for players who have been getting progressively better. They may be about to peak. Current form means they are swinging and striking the ball well and high confidence means a good chance of doing well on the greens - the key to winning any golf tournament. Any player who's been out of competitive action for three weeks or more is best left alone.

Course Setup / Player specific attributes - Horses for Courses. As with course form, different courses suit different players and it's imperative in golf betting to know the specific attributes of your players and the key metrics the course demands. EG. If the golf course plays 7,500 yards, that immediately puts the shorter hitters at a disadvantage. If a course consists of Bermuda greens, look to players that perform well on that grass type. The official site is the place to research the golf courses and player stats.

Weather Forecast / The Draw - Last but not least for now, one of the key variables in golf betting is the weather and which players will get the best of it. At the British Open Championship 2010, one side of the draw (the early/late starters I believe) were completely blown out of contention. In general, it's better to be out early to avoid the windier conditions and to get the best of the greens. On the mental side I believe the late Thursday/early Friday starters get the psychological advantage. Certain players play well in certain conditions.

To be a successful bettor, numerous skills are needed such as good analytical and numerical skills, good bankroll / risk management abilities with a good strategical approach but I hope the factors to look out for above will help you on your way to success in the golf betting game.



Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


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