NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

SPORTS BETTING ADVICE AND TIPS



Most punters are only interested in sports betting for the fun. They bet to make the sports they're watching more interesting and hope to make a bit of extra money for the weekend but if you are serious about your sports betting, here is some basic but necessary sports betting advice to give you as much of an edge as possible:

Do's and dont's for a successful Sports Bettor

Tip #1: Open an online account with multiple sportsbooks. There's a massive variety in the range of fixed odds from different compilers and why accept odds of 3/1 on your selection when it's on offer at 5/1 elsewhere? Don't underestimate the importance of a good odds comparison service such as Oddschecker; this will help you avoid missing out on the best price.

Tip #2: Don't stake more than you can afford on your betting selections. Only bet amounts you are comfortable with losing or your judgement will become clouded. Your unit stake should be in proportion to your bankroll to give you sufficient room to play with the rules of probability. The Kelly Criterion is an interesting staking plan. I'd recommend using a fraction of it.

Tip #3: Get in as early as you can on a good price. When the compilers make an obvious misjudgement in pricing, the more astute bettors out there will pick up on it immediately and get all over it, thus the bookmaker reducing the odds.

Tip #4: Keep spreadsheets of all your bets and categorise them into markets. This makes it easy to spot what markets you excel in and where improvement (or tinkering) is needed. It also confirms whether or not you have an edge in a specific betting market at all.

Tip #5: As a follow on from tip 2, learn how to manage your bankroll correctly. Bankroll management is key to successful betting. A good staking system is vital if you are to come out on top in the longrun. Finding value is not enough, minimising your risk is key to success.

Tip #6: DON'T chase your losses - Never chase your losses in sports betting or any type of betting. IE: If you have a bad week, don't double or treble up your stakes to try and recoup the money you lost. This is the worst thing you can do in betting. Bad weeks/months happen, they are part and parcel; the only thing that matters is that you were accurate in your probabilities. Same applies to a good week/month - Don't overly increase your stakes (out of proportion to your bankroll) if you've had a big win or you'll give that profit right back to the bookmakers.

Tip #7: Don't EVER bet on a 'hunch'. Betting on the grounds of 'he is due one' is a big no-no in the betting game. Probability doesn't work like that. The reality is that for example, a certain player hasn't scored in 5 games, his confidence will be low and he will most likely fire blanks again. ALWAYS go with form and confidence. As with roulette, many people believe that if eight blacks come out in a row, there is more of a chance that red will be next. There is not - the chances are exactly the same as the previous roll.

Tip #8: Always side with value. Don't succumb to the fallacy that backing numerous winners is the key to success; it is not. There is no point in backing winners if the price on offer does not represent value. This will lose you money in the longrun. Profits will come from backing value selections and if this means achieving a much lower strike rate, then so be it - "Find the value and the winners will look after themselves"

Tip #9: Follow these guidelines and advice if you want to be a more successful sports bettor.


Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.