WGC Cadillac Matchplay Betfair Trading Update

Quick update on the new trading strategy I was testing. It was built on a low risk concept and that's proved to be the case. We were looking good after day 1 matches with 6/8 winners from the group faves (and Gmac) I backed. As mentioned in the antepost preview, the low risk element was centered around the fact it was likely most would win at least 1 game and so we would be close to freerolling on faves to win both their first two games. This turned out to be the case with only McDowell (who was the only player from the 8 who wasn't actually the market favourite) losing twice.

Updated book


Unfortunately day 2 went poorly. Kuch managed to win and get himself back into things but 4 from the 6 first day one winners lost. I was hoping for a 66% win rate there rather than the other way around which would have secured the profit I had in mind. The overall record then was a less than hoped for 2-5-1 - two guys scoring 2pts, 5 guys winning 1 from 2 and just the 1 player losing both. Another big negative was both tournament faves Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth both winning two matches which has a drastic affect on the prices of the others. If 1 or both of these were in a precarious position, the book would always look a lot sweeter. Despite things going the wrong way I recovered around 75% of my liability after equalising so - against what I thought yesterday mid round - the strategy might actually be a goer in the future.

Elsewhere, Senden (from Twitter) proved good value as he has already advanced at a price of 13/2 to win his group and Leishman is looking good although he really needs to win all three the way the group has gone unfortunately. I thought McDowell would go a lot better and I lost a bit on Snedeker who I took a shot on given his big odds due to the draw.

In the United Leasing Championship, 3 from 4 are par or better which is in decent position. Wheatcroft was a non runner.

WGC Matchplay, WebDotCom and thoughts this week

I never strongly recommend any bets in matchplay format but my top 5 vs the field ratings can be found on the 888sport blog, while some decent value (IMO) shouts and full preview of the WGC Cadillac Matchplay Championships event can be found as usual over on my Unibet golf column. I do have an outside interest at very long odds on Marc Leishman. He's also a good value 2/1 top price to beat Rose in the first match or 5s to win his group.

What I will be doing is trading the new round robin group format on Betfair. The idea is to back favourites from different groups that have the potential to steam (come in strongly) if they win their first two matches, with their odds likely to stay close to their SP if they win just 1 from their two opening matches. The plan then is to exit on Thursday night after all players have played two matches, whatever the position in the book. I've gone for the guys below (plus Gmac and Hideki) - the rest have a E1,000 liability next to them at this stage.

Please note that this is a new format this year for the WGC Cadillac Matchplay championships so this is an experimental #backtolay trade.

I'll also be covering the United Leasing Championships WebCom tour event so keep an eye on the profit and loss spreadsheet for selections. There is some decent value about here on guys who are dropping down from the main tours IMO.