Course Fit Profiling Model And Ratings For Golf Betting

Course Fit is a variable that's given me a significant edge in golf betting through the years. Course fit is hard to quantify, with no specific numbers widely available. Through experience, analysis & watching countless events (empirical learning) I formed a strong intuition re course specific player suitability. I developed the course fit model above which puts a rating on my analysis using my profiling manual inputs. (note: a very strong course fit rating equates to ~2 exp. SG/R vs a neutral course, as a guide) There are outlier cases: Bryson at Augusta would be expected to pick up around 2.5-3 strokes a round on average for example with his driving and long iron ability.

For best results on each players course fit numbers for the golf tournament in question, input the ratings from my course fit profiling manual (click link for info) which includes key attribute ability data from each player and a number of courses on the golf tour rota. I've always given a strong weighting in my tissue odds to course fit. You can use your own inputs on the interactive model above too. Click the manual picture below to see all details about it....

Nicspicks Ebook - click image

My player profiling and course fit manual above supplies all the data for the top players across the European and PGA Tours. It lists all the metrics and weightings for the various courses. Using this data you can plug the numbers into the interactive model above and get an accurate course fit rating for whatever player on whatever course
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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