Course Fit Profiling Model And Ratings For Golf Betting


Course Fit is a variable that's given me a significant edge in golf betting through the years. Course fit is hard to quantify, with no specific numbers widely available. Through experience, analysis & watching countless events (empirical learning) I formed a strong intuition re course specific player suitability. I developed the course fit model above which puts a rating on my analysis using my profiling manual inputs. (note: a very strong course fit rating equates to ~2 exp. SG/R vs a neutral course, as a guide) There are outlier cases: Bryson at Augusta would be expected to pick up around 2.5-3 strokes a round on average for example with his driving and long iron ability.

For best results on each players course fit numbers for the golf tournament in question, input the ratings from my course fit profiling manual (click link for info) which includes key attribute ability data from each player and a number of courses on the golf tour rota. I've always given a strong weighting in my tissue odds to course fit. You can use your own inputs on the interactive model above too. Click the manual picture below to see all details about it....
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My player profiling and course fit manual above supplies all the data for the top players across the European and PGA Tours. It lists all the metrics and weightings for the various courses. Using this data you can plug the numbers into the interactive model above and get an accurate course fit rating for whatever player on whatever course

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


    6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.