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GUIDE TO VALUE BETTING



Your typical punter may not understand the concept of value betting, and tends not to know much about the mathematical side of betting in general. For example: having frequented online forums, or these days, Twitter, it's interesting to see how most punters go about their business. You come across many betting styles such as lumping on "sure things", putting "bankers" in an accumulator or chasing losses by upping stakes after a bad run.

Many people also raise their stakes out of proportion to their bankroll when they get a few successive wins. This is also an error. You might hear poker players for example talk about "taking a shot". What happens though when they fail to cash - which is the most likely scenario - and half their bankroll is gone? This is not a calculated risk, it's a pure gamble and yes, sure, it's worked for some to propel them into higher stakes early. Key to successful betting though is managing your bankroll optimally, and I find little attention seems to be paid to that concept.

I specialise in value betting. I use maths, rating models and betting/trading strategies that have recorded a healthy ROI of over 30% on average for the last 4 years of advised golf bets on Nicspicks. To be a profitable bettor longterm, you must fully understand odds and probabilities and you should know how the compilers set their (false) odds incorporating a margin, and make their profits. You then need to shop around for best prices using an odds comparison service like Oddschecker. Spotting prices that are bigger than they should be and then staking accordingly is the key to longterm profitable betting. I suggest looking up "Kelly criterion" for optimal exploitation of value.

Successful betting is not necessarily about achieving a high strike rate. Would you rather be winning 80% of your bets and losing money longterm or winning 40% of your bets and returning a high profit on turnover? Basically every bet I post is a winner over time in my opinion so it doesn't make a difference whether or not it comes in on any given occasion.

Let me explain to you what this means: If I backed the odds of my selection at the same win exp% over a given period of time, the overall returns of that number of bets would well outweigh the total outlay. In short, it isn't 'gambling', its simple maths together with logic and my knowledge of my specialist markets, amongst other things, and thus becomes investing in probabilities rather than gambling.

Mathematical Value Betting Example: Poli vs Shaktar Donetsk (4/5)

Remember that anything can happen in 1 game of football so take it over 100 matches in exactly the same circumstances and same price: So if I placed a bet of £100 on a shaktar win @ 4/5 and I estimated that they would win this fixture (in these exact circumstances) 75% of times.

£100(stake) x 100(games) =£10,000(total stake)

Each win @ 4/5 would return £180

75 wins by £180(return) = £13,500

Therefore you are making a profit of £3,500 over 100 matches whatever happens on this particular night. And so then just by placing the bet, you can say it's worth £3,500/100(bets) = £35 per bet whether or not it wins or loses on this particular occasion, which brings me to a favourite quote of mine: "Find the value and the winners will look after themselves".

My estimations of the win expectation could be off which is why I always allow myself a % margin for error. As a general rule, I usually look for a 10% difference in the implied probability (odds) vs my own estimation of the true probability.

Now you'll no doubt get people saying silly things like "But it would be hundreds of years before they'd play this fixture that amount of times" but It doesn't have to be this game or even this market, you just need 100 selections @ 4/5 and with a 75% win expectation. Therefore that £3,500 profit(give or take) could be yours in a few months. 100 games is alsoreally too small a sample to get a very accurate conclusion, 1000 would be a better figure to allow for the 'laws of probability'

Incidentally, that bet lost (finished 0-0 with Shaktar missing 2 very good opportunities near the end) but it didn't change my opinion of the win exp%. Having watched the game, I thought I was spot on with my long term estimation.


Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.