VALUE BETTING / VALUE BET EXAMPLE

Most average punters get confused when it comes to value betting and tend not to know much about the mathematical side of betting in general. For example, spending a lot of my time online and visiting forums etc, it's interesting to see how most punters go about their business, lumping on "sure things", putting 5 "bankers" in an accumulator, chasing their losses, raising their stakes out of proportion when they get a win and various other common mistakes that will bust your bankroll before you know it.

As mentioned throughout the site, I specialise in value betting and mathematical systems (which can include trading and include all sorts of calculations and bankroll management skills etc) that produce big profit (in terms of ROI%) over time. To be a profitable bettor longterm, you must fully understand odds and probabilities and you should know how the compilers set their odds and make their profits. All this and the use of a good odds comparison service will allow you to spot prices that are bigger than they should be - the key to profitable betting.

Successful betting is NOT about achieving a high strike rate. Would you rather be winning 80% of your bets and losing money longterm or winning 40% of your bets and getting a high profit on turnover? Basically every bet I post is a winner over time (IMO) so it doesn't make a difference whether or not it comes in on any given occasion. Let me explain to you what this means:

If I backed these odds at the same win exp% over a given period of time, that the overall returns of that number of value bets would well outweigh the total outlay. In short, it isn't 'gambling', its simple maths together with logic and my knowledge of my specialist markets (amongst other things) and thus becomes investing in probabilities rather than gambling.

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Mathematical Value Betting Example: Poli vs shaktar (4/5)

Remember that anything can happen in 1 game of football so take it over 100 matches in exactly the same circumstances and same price: So if I placed a bet of £100 on a shaktar win @ 4/5 and I estimated that they would win this fixture (in these exact circumstances) 75% of times.

£100(stake) x 100(games) =£10,000(total stake)

Each win @ 4/5 would return £180

75 wins by £180(return) = £13,500

Therefore you are making a profit of £3,500 over 100 matches whatever happens on this particular night.

And so then just by placing the bet, you can say it's worth £3,500/100(bets) = £35 per bet whether or not it wins or loses on this particular occasion, which brings me to a favourite quote of mine: "Find the value and the winners will look after themselves"

Of course, my estimations of the win expectation could be off which is why I always allow myself a % margin for error. As a general rule, I usually look for a 10% difference in the implied probability (odds) vs my own estimation of the true probability.

Now you'll no doubt get people saying silly things like "But it would be hundreds of years before they'd play this fixture that amount of times", so pay attention to the next line: It doesn't have to be this game or even this market, you just need 100 selections @ 4/5 and with a 75% win expectation. Therefore that £3,500 profit(give or take) could be yours in a few months.

Of course 100 games is too small a sample to get a very accurate conclusion, 1000 would be a better figure to allow for the 'laws of probability'

Incidentally, that bet lost (finished 0-0 with Shaktar missing 2 very good opportunities near the end) but it didn't change my opinion of the win exp%. Having watched the game, I thought I was spot on with my long term estimation.

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