Each Way Golf Betting, top 10 and 20 place golf betting - New staking plan

The last few years have seen a noticeable change in the golf betting markets - whether betting the outright each way, the top 10 or top 20 place, or even the first (1st) round leader golf betting markets. In short - especially over the last 18 months up to the beginning of 2020 - the strength and depth of competition across the main PGA tour and European golf tour has soared.

What does this mean for golf bettors and the each way and place markets betting? A prominent theme throughout my 2019 golf betting season was my tips and bets finishing a shot or 2 outside the places. My picks didn't necessarily perform worse than in seasons past. Basically the strength and depth of the field has now pretty much doubled compared to say 5 years ago on the golf betting circuit. 1 shot can mean the difference of between 5 to 10 places. 2 shots dropped and a guy in the top 6 may even miss out on a top 20 in some events. Never mind the variance involved in actually picking the winner of a golf event. Playoff losses, and healthy leads dropped down the stretch are now a lot more commonplace with a larger number of quality golfers ready to pounce on mistakes.

I've long been talking about the possible inefficiency of golf betting markets such as the 1st (first) round leader each way EW, or top 10 and 20 markets. Now I feel that even the main outright each way (EW) market is outdated and a little bit unfair on bettors. We have seen a move to combat this by some bookmakers, just like we have finally seen a shift in the way the 1st round leader market is being compiled. Certain bookies like Betfair Sportsbook are offering 7 and 8 places, while a lot are 10 places on the majors. Some others include place ties.

Trying to get the most out of your selections is going to be key in the next few years and in my opinion, 7 -10 places eachway (EW) is the way forward, with the top 20 market becoming ~top 25 including ties, and the place market top 10 and ties. My idea is to focus on these extra places to give a better chance to maximise some returns on what are good picks that may go unrewarded in lesser place markets. You should be aware that you should also really expect to see the rate of actual winners cut in half in the coming years as a guide. We have now seen liquidity rise in the Betfair (exchange) 1/5th 10 places EW market and noises are that there should be plenty of customising options available going forward in this regard.

I've been going over some numbers and have a revised strategy for the members service in 2021 and beyond, targeting different areas of the markets and optimising with the shortlists (more picks) to hopefully see better returns and less volatility. Safe to say it worked in 2021! We will be backing all tips in the 1st (first) round leader market to lessen variance aswell, and targeting top 10 and 20 rather than just each way. Even with the 1st round leader market having undergone significant surgery during 2019, I've noticed some trends I hope to exploit in the near future. Adapting is the name of the game and it will be a very interesting golf betting season ahead in 2022 and further.

tags: each way golf betting, top 10 golf betting, top 20 golf betting, 1st round leader golf betting
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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