NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

BETFAIR GOLF TRADING STRATEGY

Trading the golf on Betfair is another way of locking in decent profits. For the best chance of being profitable in the longrun from golf betting, learning to trade on exchanges like Betfair is important as is taking advantage of huge outright prices in golf tourneys exchanges like Betfair offer. There are many low risk opportunities to exploit in golf trading and if you scroll down, you can see screen shots of some golf tournaments I've traded in the past as well as some more insights and examples in the comments..

Please note that you will need an exchange account to benefit from golf trading and it is much appreciated if you support the site by signing up through my links if you want to give it a try. You can see some previous examples of pre tourney and in-play back-to-lay trades in the old Trading Zone section on Nicspicks too.....


What Is Golf Trading? The most common form of golf trading is simply backing a golfer at a certain price and then backing against him (laying) at a different stage and price in the tournament to guarantee a profit or free bet.

Example (this golf trade was posted on site): Dustin Johnson, trading at 25.0 is out early in the morning on day one at Pebble beach and I fancy him to go low on a course he loves. I know if he does that he will be trading in single figures. Say I place £50 on him at 25.0 (24/1), I stand to make £1200 profit if he wins the event.

As predicted, he gets off to a fantastic start and comes all the way into odds of 5.0 (4/1) by the end of day one play. I now lay (bet against) him for my original stake of £50. This means I have a liability of £200 (£50x4) if he wins, which would come out of the £1200 I already stand to win if he lifts the trophy - so essentially, I stand to make a £1000 total profit, but I have now covered my stake and lose nothing if he fails.

I now have some options: I can let this run, I can hope to trade later in the event or I can "green up" (equalise, or trade completely to ensure profit) now. If trading fully is the preferred option, I simply divide the £1000 by his current odds (5.0) which gives me £200. I then lay him for £200 and now I stand to make £200 profit from golf trading on the event no matter who wins or what happens.

To get started with golf trading, simply create a Betfair account here and claim your free £20 bet (click link) to try it out. Follow my picks each week and have a go at trading them if they are running well.

BETFAIR GOLF TRADING EXAMPLES: Below are profits I've made from certain tournaments from investments no greater than €200 (on the tournament as a whole) so that will give you an idea of how lucrative golf trading can be. Please note that these are screenshots from certain winning weeks - trading can be volatile and many losing weeks will occur if you're backing to lay but if you follow my picks you should be be profitable in the longrun from trading the golf.

(click screenshots to enlarge - green figure beside player is profit if they win)

For some more strategy guides, visit the old Trading Zone Section



Some more recent winning golf trades:








Tags: Golf Trading. Betfair Trading, Golf Trading strategy, Betfair Golf Trading

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.