EW Golf Staking Plan



In this section I'm going to delve into some mathematics behind my longterm consistency in producing profit from golf betting, and outline a strategy I recommend for those following my weekly picks. Many people fail to realise that picking winners isn't enough - to maintain an edge on the market, you need to have a good strategy and staking plan in place to exploit value and manage your bankroll.

I generally allocate 10 units to a full field golf event; this equates to just 4% of my bankroll. I target five or six players at certain odds (all above what I think they should be) and stake proportionally so that if any were to win or place, they would return broadly the same amount averaging out over a full season

For example:

1.5 units ew @ 30/1 would return 59.25 for a win or 12.75 for a place
1 unit ew @ 50/1 would return 64.5 for a win or 13.5 for a place
0.5 units ew @ 100/1 would return 63.5 for a win or 13.0 for a place

I tend to look at the event as a whole in a five or six v the field manner rather than each player individually. I make my picks so that just one place would return me in the range of 130%-170% of my tournament outlay (30-70% profit). This means that only one place from every two events would return approximately 75% of my yearly investment and here's where the winners come in: The places keep the bankroll ticking over while just a few winners would put you into profit for the season. Regular followers will know that in the four seasons since blog inception, Nicspicks has averaged over ten winners per season at av. odds of around 50/1.

A good staking strategy is vital to profiting from golf betting and hopefully this article will prove as a useful guide. If you enjoyed the read, please retweet to your followers on twitter and feel free to comment in below


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


Buy my Golf Betting Book £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle

<b>Buy my Golf Betting Book</b> £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle
Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting



Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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