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EW Golf Staking Plan



In this section I'm going to delve into some mathematics behind my longterm consistency in producing profit from golf betting, and outline a strategy I recommend for those following my weekly picks. Many people fail to realise that picking winners isn't enough - to maintain an edge on the market, you need to have a good strategy and staking plan in place to exploit value and manage your bankroll.

I generally allocate 10 units to a full field golf event; this equates to just 4% of my bankroll. I target five or six players at certain odds (all above what I think they should be) and stake proportionally so that if any were to win or place, they would return broadly the same amount averaging out over a full season

For example:

1.5 units ew @ 30/1 would return 59.25 for a win or 12.75 for a place
1 unit ew @ 50/1 would return 64.5 for a win or 13.5 for a place
0.5 units ew @ 100/1 would return 63.5 for a win or 13.0 for a place

I tend to look at the event as a whole in a five or six v the field manner rather than each player individually. I make my picks so that just one place would return me in the range of 130%-170% of my tournament outlay (30-70% profit). This means that only one place from every two events would return approximately 75% of my yearly investment and here's where the winners come in: The places keep the bankroll ticking over while just a few winners would put you into profit for the season. Regular followers will know that in the four seasons since blog inception, Nicspicks has averaged over ten winners per season at av. odds of around 50/1.

A good staking strategy is vital to profiting from golf betting and hopefully this article will prove as a useful guide. If you enjoyed the read, please retweet to your followers on twitter and feel free to comment in below


Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.