Golf Course profiling - Course Fit Guides

Hint: use 'ctrl & f' to search for the course you want insights on. All course profiles for regular courses on the PGA and European Tour are available in Nicspicks course fit profiling manual 2022

Sentry Tournament Of Champions - Kapalua

Sentry tournament of champions target player profile:

The Plantation course at Kapalua is one of the longest and widest courses on tour where power players come to the fore. Big elevation changes leave some blind shots into large undulating greens so a tidy short game is also a prerequisite. Xander Schauffele circled his way to a final round -11 in the 2019 Sentry Tournament of champions, and blue numbers will be the brief. Over aggression from approaches is not the way to go at Kapalua

The course

Plantation Course at Kapalua - par 73, 7,518 yards.

Chicken nugget: The course has seen renovations this year but I don't expect it to play much differently. Hole lengths will be altered to compensate for winds.

Key features:
undulating terrain with elevation changes. Large undulating greens that need you to work the ball into rather than take out the pins. Trade winds. Very tricky surfaces to putt on from close range. Generous landing areas.

Premium on:

Strokes gained off the tee. Par breakers. Working the slopes on approaches is an advantage on the Plantation course.

Course: Randpark (Bushwillow and Firethorn)

South African Open target player profile:

A player with a solid all around game who isn't afraid of attacking pins and going low. Birdies are the brief.

The course: Randpark GC (Bushwillow and firethorn courses) par 71, 7115 and 7506 yards respectively

Key features: Old Parklands treelined tracks with numerous water hazards. Rough wasn't too punishing in 2019. Deep greenside bunkering.

Premium On:
Total birdies, strokes gained approach

Sony Open course - Waialae - Par 70, 7044 yards

Sony Open target player profile:

Experienced, accurate players, that are strong in trade winds tend to be the prominent theme at Sony Open leaderboards. A hot putter gets the job done here. Go low.

Key features:

Sparse palm treelined bushy track with narrow fairways and spongy bermuda rough. Some Dog-legs. Small bermuda surfaces with mown areas, shallow bunkers or sticky bermuda rough greenside. Strong winds.

Premium on:

Accuracy and positioning off the tee. Putting. Par 4 performance.

Potential ones to watch at the 2020 Sony Open (if committed to field) are the likes of Rory Sabbitini, Brian Gay and Brian Harman who all returned to form with a bang last year. Of the noobs, Collin Morikawa should be well suited to Waialae too, while Scottie Sheffler would love the Sony Open birdie fest. Players that played throughout the turn of the year in Aus and that played at Kapalua always have the edge at the Sony Open. Strong wind efficiency is a big positive too.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Course profile (Abu Dhabi GC):

Target player profile: Strong total driving and greens in regulation generally gets it done at Abu Dhabi GC. Conditions can change from year to year so pay close attention to course playability closer the off

The course: Abu Dhabi GC, par 72 7,583 yds

Key features: Pristine fairways. Generally thick rough tee to green. Sandy / bush areas for the errant. Lots of water hazards for the sprayers. Mixture of tight lies (front) / thick fibre or deep bunkering around the greens.

Premium On: Strokes gained: tee to green. Long and straight with the driver and control of flight with the irons is the concoction for success at Abu Dhabi GC

Chicken nuggets: Martin Kaymer struggled dramatically chipping off the tight lies in front of the greens when collapsing in the final round in 2015. Martin and Andy Sullivan are two notables to struggle with the bushes/shrubs in the sandy areas and or the water when contending here

Lots of birdies available but lots of big numbers await for stray shots....

Lucas Bjerregaard hit 8 birds in a row here 1 year but missed cut due to 3 double bogeys+

The American Express (PGA WEST)

American Express target player proflie:

It's simple, fire at the pins and smoke up that putter. Arguably the easiest set up on tour at the PGA West Stadium, NP and La Quinta courses. Some of the purest greens on the schedule here. Risk/Reward theme.

The courses....

TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, 7,113 yards, par 72.
Nicklaus tournament: par 72, 7,159 yards
La quinta: par 72, 7060 yards

Key features:
Pure, straight greens. Easy pin positions. Risk/reward theme with water / sandy area trouble, but landing areas generally open. Sparse rough. Island green 17th on Pete Dye stadium course, similar to Sawgrass. Deepest bunker / sandy area ever on 16th on Stadium.

Premium on:
Total birdies, Putting from 5-15 and 10-25 feet, aggressive approach proximity

Chicken nuggets:

Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta in 2017.

Patrick Reed holds the 72 hole tournament record with a score total of 260. Pleased to say Nicspicks followers benefited after I tipped him at a whopping 140/1 pre tournament, giving rise to the hashtag: #GetGreedyWithReedy

The course: Gary Player CC (Sun City) par 72, 7,827 yards (NEDBANK)

Key features: Testing rough. Tree or bushlined fairways. Kidney bean and clover shaped greens. Water hazards. False fronts. Strategic bunkering.

The Gary Player CC is at high Altitude, meaning the ~longest track on tour only plays just over 7,000 yards in reality. The big test is controlling distance with approaches into the strange shaped greens with tough pin positions. A high iron ball flight is a weapon.

Premium on:

"Length combined with precision from the tee and a high ball flight from approaches is a good concoction for success around here" - Nicspicks. Greens in regulation is King at the Nedbank golf challenge.

Chicken nugget: Branden Grace hit all 18 greens in reglation on the Sunday when winning the Nedbank Challenge in 2017.

They said: "the multi-faceted greens leave plenty of options for tricky pin positions throughout the week" - ET

Nedbank Challenge Course specialists: Louis, Stenson, Kaymer, Westwood, Grace

Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines)

The big hitters are playing a tournament within a tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open

The big boys will be out in force at Torrey Pines North and South for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is the week I say really gets the PGA tour Golf season started

Farmers Insurance Open target proflie:

Bombers. Bombers. Bombers. Total driving (long and straight) a big advantage but ultimately the further out from the tips, the better. Then, a great short game gets it done on and around pretty large fiery Poa (south) surfaces. The cream always rises to the top.

The courses (SC yardage pre renovations)

Torrey Pines NC: par 72 7258 yds, BG greens
Torrey Pines SC: par 72 7,698 yds, PA greens

Key features:

Long, hard to hit fairways. Thick rough along fairways and around greens. Coastal vistas. Elevated pretty large (6,000 sqft) Poa greens, tiered, (South course) that are hard to get up and down on, and run back towards centre

Premium on:
Strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT), high ball flight from approaches, bogey avoidance, par 5 performance, strong scrambling skills, lag putting

Chicken nuggets:

Torrey South has seen some changes ahead of the 2021 US Open to be held here (Tees, bunkering and around the greens)

The 2019 Farmers Insurance finally put to bed the irritating narrative of the eventual winner having an advantage if playing the South course first. Justin Rose began his tournament on the North course (and blitzed the field), while the previous 8 editions RANDOMLY saw the winner from the opposite draw

Xander Schauffele home game. Pat Perez's dad is an announcer here. Tiger woods. Joaquin Niemann won 2 junior events at Torrey Pines.

Dubai Desert Classic (Emirates GC)

Dubai Desert Classic target player profile:
It was very much a theme of Total Driving ability at the Abu Dhabi champs last week but here in Dubai, it will be more a case of crushing the 'Strokes Gained: Off the tee' stats. Expect a very similar looking leaderboard though. Bombs off the tee and a hot putter will suffice at Emirates GC.

The course: Emirates GC par 72, 7,353 yards

Key features:

Palm and small treelined desert track with plenty of room from the tips. Lots of sandy areas for stray shots, with water hazards and dog legs on selected holes. Greens here are ever changing - from sculpted pastries, to browned out pancakes last year. Look for the bigger hitters to cut the corners and take on the par 4 17th signature hole

Course Correlation: Abu Dhabi GC

Chicken nuggets: There was a theme here in Dubai last year with the likes of Waring, Fitzpatrick and Larrazabal all saying the same thing: essentially it was a "bomb and putting test", with some greens pinched in, and the fibre down

Course profile: Waste Management Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)

Those with a sky high trajectory approach with the irons will have an advantage at TPC Scottsdale

Prepare for the "Greatest show on grass" as the Waste Management Phoenix Open hits town.

Waste Management Phoenix Open target proflie:

Relatively long and relatively straight, with a main course of high trajectory approaches gets it done at TPC Scottsdale. Desert style golf exp and TPC Scottsdale experience itself an advantage. You got to take the risk to get the reward here.

The course - TPC Scottsdale Par 71, 7261

Key features:
Desert terrain. Immaculate soccer stadium like aesthetics, Risk reward theme especially on the back 9 (the scoring 9). Raucous crowds especially around signature stadium hole - par 3 16th.

Premium on:
Total driving, Strokes gained approach, Proximity to the hole, high ball flight on approach

Chicken nuggets:

Always reminds me of my pitch and putt days - pins hidden behind frontal bunkers and must come in super high with spin control. Many PGA Tour pros reside or have connections to Scottsdale. Jon Rahm unfortunately practices here a lot. Tony Finau always seems to play badly here (Distance control problems).

Pebble Beach Pro Am target player proflie:

we are looking for players with local ties, repeat event form, a liking for Poa Annua surfaces and or a certain relaxed type of mentality. Ability in the wind a bonus. A sharp short game gets it done.

The courses

Pebble Beach Golf Links - par 72, 6816 yards
Monterey Peninsula - par 71, 6958 yards
Spyglass Hill - par 72, 6953 yards

Key features:
Small Poa Greens, Generous landing areas on all tracks, Coastal winds, accessible pin positions. Rough will be down this week for Pro Am format. Elevation changes

Premium on:
Strokes gained: around the green, scrambling, ball flight control in the seaside breezes. Distance control from approaches

Chicken nuggets:

Sung Kang holds the ind. course scoring record, shooting 60 on the Monterey track. Poa Annua and Cali specialist Brandt Snedeker holds the tournament record with a win total of -22. Highly rated youngster Brandon Wu has local ties and some good memories on the Pebble Beach course itself - one to potentially get onside this week at a price.

Pebble Beach / Monterey specialists:

Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Nick Watney, Viktor Hovland (Won US Am at Pebble / T12 US Open low am record), Jimmy Walker

2020 Genesis Invitational The course - Riviera CC, 7,322 yards, par 71

t's known as a ball strikers Paradise and those with length and solid ball striking ability always come to the fore at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational

The longer hitters, especially with the iron flight, have the advantage around Riviera country club. Multiple times more so when it plays soft, basically eliminating the shorter guys chances of winning the Genesis (see 2019 Genesis leaderboard)

Genesis Invitational target player proflie:

Long off the tee and with the mid irons, with the ability to shape it both ways (predominantly with a fade), is the concoction for success at Riviera

Key features:
Pretty small greens, usually some of the hardest to find on the PGA Tour season. Kikuyu strain of grass along fairways and around greens (sticky). Augusta like aesthetics. Tall trees and some pine straw and you often get away with spraying it if lucky. Deep greenside bunkers

Premium on:
must take advantage of the easy par 5s at the Genesis Invitational. Finding the right side of the Riviera fairways/ or even Kikuyu for optimal approach angle into some tucked pin positions on elevated surfaces. Long irons.

Chicken nuggets: for the Genesis Invitational

Each year, the Genesis Invitational proves one of the hardest set of greens to hole out short putts on.

Bubba Watson, amongst others, deliberately misses some fairways for better approach angles (sometimes plays to other fairways rather than just the rough)

The bombers absolutely dominated again in 2019 at the Genesis Invitational. Conditions were soft in the beginning of the week

The course - golf de Club Chapultepec (WGC Mexico) Par 71, 7345

Distance and spin control will play a big part at high altitude for the WGC Mexico championship in Chapultepec

WGC Mexico Championship target player profile:

Players experienced at the Chapultepec venue, with a tidy short game (experience chipping on Kikuyu) tick the box. Strong records at tracks like Montreaux, Crans and others at high altitude may be a pointer. Accuracy over power.

Key features:
Old school parklands style track playing 10% shorter than it's length at altitude in Mexico. Deep treeline and very tight from the tips. Back to front sloping, spinny, double tiered greens. Sticky Kikuyu around greens

Premium on:
Accuracy, distance and spin control from approach - must leave ball underneath hole but carry to top tier and control spin

Chicken nuggets: for the Mexico Championship

All types of games can win here. Thomas and Rory used driver in 2019 and smashed it off the tee. Caveat is you must hit it very straight or suffer big numbers. Lots of maths involved in approach shots. Birdies and bogeys (or worse) a plenty

Honda Classic The course - PGA National championship course, 7,125 yards, par 70

It's all about ball striking and hitting those fairways and greens as the Bear Trap lurks at PGA national for the Honda Classic

Honda Classic target player proflie:

Top ball striker who can shape it both ways and fly it using the wind to advantage. Hits a lot of fairways and greens and can grind out the pars. Good with the longer irons an advantage. Less than driver will be used a lot on angled tee shots in crosswinds.

Key features:
Welcome return to Bermuda greens, some kidney shaped 3 pronged with tucked / protected pins on firm greens. Greens were made 25% bigger last year and measure circa 7,000 square feet now. Usually Deep spinach off fairways and around greens. Some runoffs. Water everywhere. Bear Trap will cause the usual chaos down the stretch.

Premium on:
Ball striking: Bogey Avoidance, wind play, driving accuracy - must play from the short grass here to have any chance of attacking pins

Chicken nuggets: for the Honda Classic

Ryan Palmer likened hitting it in the rough here off the tee to an auto 1 shot penalty (some years). Even when rough is down a little like in 2019, you still can't attack protected pin positions on firm greens. Palmer carded a final round -7 in toughest of conditions of the week on day 4 in 2019

Rickie Fowler is a local who loves the track. Holed 57/57 putts from inside 7ft on the Bermuda en route to winning in 2017. FAVOURITE.

He said:

"Had the pleasure of on course commentating @TheHondaClassic
Finally saw accuracy rewarded. 7100 yards, Rough was only 2.5 inches, greens were relatively small and firm and it took an exceptional shot to have a birdie look from off fairway. Perfect set up, great event" - Gary christian 2019

Arnold Palmer Invitational - The course - Bay hill, par 72, 7,454 yards

The ball striking theme continues at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but emphasis this week is on long iron approaches, marginally pipping driving efficiency

Arnold Palmer Invitational target player proflie:

Top ball striker high in the total driving charts and strong with the long irons. Par 5 destroyers.

Key features:
Large Bermuda greens with run offs into thick rough or deep bunkers. Water hazards. Easy par 5s. Usually windy. Can be cold early morning so ball doesn't travel as far.

Premium on:

Lots of lengthy iron approaches for second shots so strong mid to long iron play is the emphasis here. Must play from fairways. Scoring needs to be done on the par 5s.

Chicken nuggets: for the Arnold Palmer

Scoring here depends of how they set the course up which seems to be ever changing year on year in terms of rough depth and fairway width. Rough is usually thick and conditions get faster and firmer as the week goes on.

Kiradech aphibarnrat was a strange name on the leaderboard in recent years. A deeper look into the stats tells you why: He went -20 for the par 5s through the 2015 and 2016 editions.

The course - TPC Sawgrass, par 72, 7189 yards (2019)

Players championship target player profile:

An all rounder with a top short game and steely nerve is required at the Players Championship. Big hitting is not generally required here but in 2019 the softer conditions lent themselves towards the likes of defending champion Rory McIlroy

Key features:

Less than driver course. Shot shaping both ways required from tee. Pinestraw. Treelined (sparse in places). Probably the biggest risk reward course on tour. Plenty of water hazards in play including the signature par 3 17th hole and on the drivable par 4 12th. Overseeded bermuda greens and rough (lusher and softer conditions in 2019 march slot). Sub-Air systems - stimp often reaches 13+ here, and it tends to blow

Premium on:
Placement from the tips. Short game (strokes gained around the green). Strategy.

Chicken nuggets for the Players Champs:

Scoring here depends on how firm or soft it plays and it can change quickly depending on wind and with the sub air systems turned on overnight. In 2016 the early late split was a massive 2 shots easier in the AM wave before the wind got up and greens dried out (just to give some perspective)

TPC Sawgrass was a a very fair test in 2019 and a great event for betting (rough, greens)

Colonial Country Club par 70, 7,209 yards (Charles Schwab)

Charles Schwab Challenge Target Player Profile: Accurate tee to green with a hot flat stick over the four days gets the job done at Colonial

key features:

Treelined classic parkland track. Very tight with overhanging trees both sides of the fairway and getting tighter. Small greens protected by bunkering, with very narrow entrances, and false fronts.

Greens: Bentgrass (smooth)
Fibre: Bermuda (variable depth yearly)

Premium on

Driving accuracy
Holing out
Par breakers
Wind play

The course: Harbour town Links par 71, 7,099 yards (RBC Heritage)

RBC Heritage Target player profile: Smart plotter style player, accurate off the tee and equipped with shot making / good scrambling qualities around the tiny greens. Experience counts for a lot and course management is key here. Strong wind pedigree a bonus.

Key Features - see manual info

Treelined with overhanging branches - Doglegs - Small greens with sleepers, penal bunkers and water. Par 3 card wreckers. Wind is often up on the island.

Greens: Bermuda (small)
Fibre: Bermuda

Premium on

Driving accuracy
Holing out
Wind play
Par breakers

Chicken nuggets: Players talk about keeping the ball underneath the treeline here when the wind blows - the likes of Branden Grace is brilliant at this kind of golf

The Course - Montgomerie Maxx Royal, par: 72, 7,133 yrds - Turkish Airlines

Key features
- designed by Colin Montgomerie who was short off the tee and prefers a fade, this track offers many "strategic options". "Mix of pine forest and sandy ridges". Back nine is tighter than the front. Large undulating greens and average width, contoured, pristine fairways. Numerous water hazards.

Premium on
- Greens in regulation, proximity to the hole, par 5 performance

The course - Sheshan International par 72, 7,261 yards....

Key Features
Treelined track with numerous water hazards. Built on a quarry. Couple of short par 4s. Elevated greens with false fronts and deep bunkers.

Premium on:
Strokes gained tee to green. (Total driving and greens in regulation)

Key metrics
(SG: T2G PGA Tour 2019 ( of those in HSBC Champions field)

1 1 Rory McIlroy 72 2.126 1.195 .633 .297 57
3 3 Hideki Matsuyama 91 1.487 .381 .759 .347
4 4 Adam Scott 63 1.483 .285 .846 .351 44
6 6 Paul Casey 79 1.453 .614 .706 .133 55
7 7 Byeong Hun An 80 1.402 .351 .420 .631 61
9 9 Corey Conners 90 1.196 .653 .665 -.123 69
11 11 Xander Schauffele 77 1.149 .456 .481 .211

He said: "I enjoy this course. It feels like it suits my eye of the tee and you can take advantage of a couple of those par fives out there if you hit good tee shots" - Bernd Wiesberger

The course: TPC River Highlands (Travelers): Par 70, 6,841 yards

Travelers championship Target player profile

Strong driver, accurate with approaches and short irons. Decent course management needed as firing at some pins will leave you short sided and dead. Par breakers.

Key Features

Thick rough - Water - Good lines off the markers - tiered greens with run offs - mound surround - elevation changes - short par 4s

Greens: Mainly Poa (look like a bent texture)
Fibre: (mix, bluegrass, fescue for errant - very thick and lush in 2019)

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Total driving efficiency
Proximity to the hole (approach)
Holing out
Par breakers

The course: Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage, North course), Par 72, 7,335 yards

Rocket Mortgage Classic Target player profile: Big hitting birdie maker familiar with Donald Ross designs

Key Features

Tall Oaks frame the fairways and track favours slight draw. some short par 4s, rough thick along fairways and cabbage around greens this year. Donald Ross designs incorporate back to front sloping greens with run offs/ false fronts. Circa 12ft on the stimp

Greens - Poa/bent, small - avg just over 5,000 sqft - very tricky from short range, and above hole, with subtle breaks

Fibre: Bluegrass

Premium on

Driving Distance
Par Breakers
holing out
short approach

Chicken Nuggets: JT Poston hit the record equaling low round 63 here last year (tied it with Lashley) and also went bogey free over 72 holes to win at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield

The players were really struggling with the short side putts in 2020 (and downhill ones) - not so much the Poa greens which can get bumpy but just with the actual reads. Always a shot to green for errant drives with low canopys and nothing except false fronts on greens

Muirfield village: Par 72, 7,392 yards (Memorial)

Muirfield Village Known as the primary second shot track on tour, the general theme around Muirfield Village is:
give it a rip off the tee but be very measured and accurate on approach. Leaving the ball above
the hole or missing greens on the shortside will lead to automatic bogey or worse. The trophy at
Jack’s place is one everybody wants to lift.

Workday Charity Open Target player profile

Big hitter who can take advantage of par fives, and excels in the iron department. Experience
and course management a big advantage

Key Features

Average size greens surrounded by deep bunkers or very penal rough - tucked pin positions - scorable par 5s - Lush and penal fairway rough - generous landing areas - elevation changes - bomber surfaces - long second shots - deep fairway bunkering

Greens: Bentgrass (average and superfast from above hole)
Fibre: Kentucky, Rye, Fescue (lush and deep around fairways and greens)

Premium on
Par 5 scoring
Driving distance
Proximity approach
Lag putting
Total driving efficiency

Chicken Nuggets:

"second shot course" DO NOT #SHORTSIDE

The course: Dom Pedro Victoria resort course, par 71, yards 7191

Target player profile:
Aggressive Bomber who makes a lot of birdies

Key features Resort style course: Large undulating greens. Exposed. Water Hazards. Rough will be up (Bermuda) more than previous editions.

Chicken nuggets: The Oceanico Resort course has seen significant changes since last season with a much tougher test possibly in store. Changes may not affect play this season as much as in seasons ahead but trees have been added to try and lessen the bomber advantage on the Victoria track. Bermuda rough along fairways and around greens should see a stiffer test and they are looking to make conditions a little faster and firmer but given the time of year that remains to be seen.

Premium on: Bombers have a huge advantage around this track. An advantage on par with the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour at Doral, in that they can carry doglegs and trouble / hazards, and be left with short irons into large undulating greens, (despite changes, including new trees) implemented for the 2019 Portugal Masters edition). Proximity to the hole. Par breakers.

Course correlation: Albatross Golf Resort (exact match), Blue Monster at Doral

CJ Cup Course: Nine bridges par 72, 7,241 yards

Key Features:

Large, slow and undulating bentgrass greens (prepped around 10'), deep bunkering, water hazards. Wind strength will be key

Premium on
Greens in regulation, ball control and flight in wind, total birdies

Course correlation: Undulations, wind and some aesthetical similarities reminds me in ways of Trinity Forest where (#simmering) Sung Kang won in Texas earlier in the year (Byron Nelson)

Notes: scoring in 2018 was twice as low as the inaugural edition. This is due to the sweeping winds across the island, and it will pay to monitor the forecast closely on Jeju Island this week

The CJ Cup is a 78 man no cut event.

The course: Accordia Golf Narashino CC, par 70, 7,040 yards (ZOZO)

Target player profile: Distance combined with accuracy from the tips will go a long way at Accordia. Approach proximity will separate the men from the boys. THIS IS A HIDEKI MATSUYAMA COURSE.

Key features: Treelined track with undulations/elevation changes into plateaued greens. A number of relatively straight holes (some doglegs) with average width fairways, and penal but fair rough in places. A number of greenside bunkers below the surfaces. Relatively soft and receptive conditions.

Chicken nuggets: Skins game played here Monday was won by Jason Day. 2 greens on the holes here.

Premium on: Total driving and proximity to the hole / SG: approach

Course correlation: Firestone CC

GC of Houston course: par 72 7441 yards (Houston Open)

Target Player Profile: Smart Power player with course experience and solid short putting (Houston)

key features

Large undulating and tiered greens, generous landing areas, lots of water trouble. Greens are Bermuda expected to run 12' on the stimp

Premium on:
Driving distance / SG:OTT, putting from 5-15ft

Those with a high trajectory from approach have an advantage in terms of being able to get closer to some tough tiered pin positions. You don't want to short side yourself around the GC of Houston.

Note: the different slot in the calendar will see different conditions than the normal fast and firm setup to mimic Augusta

Home game (selected): Vegas, Reed, Walker, Hossler, Tringale, Hickock

Course specialists: Stenson, Berger, Henley, Mahan, ANTHONY KIM :)

Course correlations: Augusta, Doral

Le Golf National course: par 71, 7,245 yards (Open de Frence)

Open De France Target Player Profile: Accurate off the tee, greens in regulation machine, and strong course management skills

Key features

Half links style / half stadium track. Exposed, but tight off the tips. Risk/reward course with serious water trouble. Smallish undulating greens. Pot bunkers. Thick and / or wispy rough. Mound surround

Premium on:

***DRIVING ACCURACY***, Strokes gained:tee to green, course management

He said - "This is a great golf course" "It really is a thinker's course, it's a ball strikers course aswell. It just asks questions of everything in your game" - Ryder Cup Captain, Thomas Bjorn

Italian Open Course: Olgiata GC par 71, 7523 yards

Key features: Long tightish, Woodland terrain, with small undulating bent/ poa greens. Undulating fairways on back 9, some elevated surfaces with deep bunkering

Premium on: Total driving / SG:OTT, strokes gained approach / T2G. Strong mid to long iron players should fare well.

Italian Open Key metric leaders STROKES GAINED: APPROACH
(players in Italian Open field)

Rank Player Name Total Rounds Average

2 - WESTWOOD, Lee - 45 - +1.37
3 - LOWRY, Shane - 28 - +1.23
5 - HATTON, Tyrrell - 30 - +1.18
6 - SCRIVENER, Jason - 70 -+1.13
7 - MIGLIOZZI, Guido - 67 - +1.12
8 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +1.05

Strokes gained: off the tee
2 - LI, Haotong - 38 - +1.00
4 - ARNAUS, Adri - 79 -+0.94
6 - PEREZ, Victor - 64 - +0.76
8 - SOUTHGATE, Matthew - 68 - +0.70
9 - LUITEN, Joost - 56 - +0.69

Chicken Nuggets: Ian Poulter shot a course record 61 here to Open the 2002 Italian Open at Olgiata, which he went on to win over 3 rounds

Course correlation: Woburn (Marquess course)

Home game: Edoardo Molinari, Francesco Molinari, Andrea Pavan, Nino Bertasio, Guido Migliozzi

The course - TPC Summerlin par 71, 7,255 yards

Key Features

Desert terrain, elevation, altitude, large elevated bentgrass greens, risk reward theme, generous landing areas

Premium on

SG: Off the tee, SG:T2G, birdies/ par breakers, distance control at altitude, controlled aggression

Note: TPC Summerlin is a risk reward course where elevation changes coupled with altitude and some raised greens with run offs means both approach play and scrambling are necessary. Power off the tee is a an advantage but you can't spray it here either. Ultimately it will come down to the blue circles carded.

Kevin Na reckons he has a big advantage knowing the nuances of the greens and strong putters like Kaufman (in a previous life) and Kizzire have excelled here.

Course correlation
- TPC Scottsdale, PGA West (Nicklaus private and Stadium)

Home game for Charley Hoffman, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Nick Watney, Aron wise, Kevin Stadler....

Club de Campo Madrid (Open de Espana)

The course - Club de Campo Madrid par 71, 7,112 yards

Key Features

Tight treelined track with narrow, raised greens, protected by bunkers

Premium on

Keeping the ball in play / position off the tee, and approach play / GIR

Course correlation - Valderrama, Colonial CC

The course(s) RSM Classic - Plantation/Seaside

"Go low or go home"

Plantation: par 72 7060 "Parklands by the sea. Newly renovated. Most of the holes have seen some change / rerouting. Changes in the bunkering - Greenbrier like, with sharp sides in rectangular shape. Chocolate drop mounding added.

Seaside: par 70, 7,005 yards - large elevated dome like greens. Accuracy over power rewarded here, hot flat stick required.

Wind set to be down / benign conditions. Rough down on both courses.

Premium on:
Greens in reg, putting from 5-15 and 15-25 feet, Total birdies

Target player profile:
Accurate with good ball control and a mighty hot flat stick

Chicken Nuggets: Around half of the field either reside, have resided or are connected to the Sea Island resort, which boasts one of the best golf practice facilities / centres in the States, along with a number of tracks

Tommy Gainey hit a then course record 60 enroute to victory here

Royal Pines - Australian PGA championship

Australian PGA Championship target player profile:

We are looking for a player with strong "total driving" ability, who is efficient in the wind, and who owns a good touch on and around the greens at Royal Pines

The course: Royal Pines Resort, Queensland, par 72, 7,364 yards

Key features:

Large undulating elevated greens with run offs. Pure surfaces. Treelined track but you can get a shot if loose. Lots of water trouble from the tips and approaches. Strong par 3s. Deep greenside bunkering. Scorable par 5s.

Premium on:

Total driving, strokes gained around the green.

The course: El Camaleon par 71, 7,017 yards (Mayakoba Classic)

Key features:
Smaller than average, well protected, undulating greens set to run around 11' on the stimp. Tight from the tips - treelined, beside the ocean. Windy. Greg Norman design.

Premium on:

Ball striking (often in wind). Positional play. ***Par 4 scoring***.

Experience is a big advantage at Mayakoba and older, plotter style players tend to be a strong theme on past leaderboards. Described as a "tight little coastal gem".

Course correlation: Harbour Town, Trump International, Waialae, Seaside course (sea Island)

The course - Earth course (Jumeirah Golf Estates) par 72, 7,677 yards

Key Features

Fast, firm and pristine, especially as week goes on. Rough usually not overly punishing.

Exposed track with Wide landing areas, large undulating greens (elevated with run offs and hard to read). Large marble bunkering on fairways and around greens. Pinestraw.

Some tough flag positions - second shot track / high irons advantageous. Water features / risk/reward theme

Premium On

Driving distance, Greens in Regulation

This section contains selected course guides and key information from my course fit profiling manual and my blog previews. The course premium key metric weightings will only be available in the manual or in the weekly betting previews.

My course guides are straight to the point efficient profiling, focusing on exactly what you need to find suitable course matches and good bets. They gave rise to my course fit player ratings and model. Course fit player profile ratings are available through the link..

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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