The Barclays Scottish Open heads to a new venue this year in the shape of Castle Stuart golf links. Designed by Mark Parsinen, who also co designed Kingsbarns, it may be worth looking over the recent Alfred Dunhill Links leaderboards. The Castle Stuart course plays 7,050 yards long to a par of 72 with many short par 4's and long par 3's. Expect the wind to blow in this year's Barclays Scottish Open. This week I'll be going all out on big priced players.

GOLF TRADING: Remember to check out my golf trading section, including a simple pre tournament betting strategy and screenshots of some profitable events. Betfair offer great value outright prices.

Barclays Scottish Open Picks
Pick 1: Peter Hanson E/W @ 40/1 (general) Fantastic wind player, in great form this season and has tournament form at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Hanson's game has really moved up a level this year and 40/1 looks great E/W value.

Pick 2: Martin Laird E/W @ 45/1 (Betfred) Laird has had a bit of a lull after a great opening to 2011. Signs of him returning to form though before the Barclays Scottish Open with a -10 finish at the Travelers 2 weeks ago. Ranks 31st in par 3 scoring average on the PGA Tour, tied for 5th in the links last year and 10th and 26th in the previous 2 Barclays Scottish Opens.

Pick 3: Nicolas Colsaerts E/W @ 66/1 (general) Big hitting Colsaerts has already hit a big winner for Nicspicks earlier in the year and showed signs that he was about to peak again at last week's French Open. Course could suit. A real threat to the big boys when on form as he showed at the matchplay.

Pick 2: Anders Hansen E/W @ 80/1 (Sporting Bet) Looking really menacing in the last 2 months on tour with 4 top 20's including two 2nd place finishes. I expected him to make a run at the lead on day 4 last week but he went backwards. Look for him to bounce back this week at the Barclays Scottish Open.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Barclays Scottish Open.

Barclays Scottish Open Sleepers
Simon Dyson E/W @ 90/1 | Richie Ramsay E/W @ 80/1 Both prices with Bet365 2 players that love links golf. Both have good records at the Alfred Dunhill Links with Dyson a previous winner and both off recent top 5's in that event. Both know how to get around links courses and play in tough conditions. Ramsey could have won last week in France and has been gradually getting better in recent weeks and Dyson usually hits form in the latter half of the season.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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