2020 Portugal Masters Tips - Dom Pedro course fit for Nienaber

Wilco can bomb his way to victory on the resort layout

The Portugal Masters is always one of my favourite events. I have lots of history here as some of you may know! It's one of the courses where the theme rings true significantly, and that is one of big hitting aggressive birdie makers featuring strongly on the Dom Pedro resort track in Vilamoura.

100/1 ('19) Brandon Stone bombed his way around this course for us last year trading odds on during back nine Sunday with a 2 shot buffer, only to come unstuck. He showed exactly what the bigger hitters can do, and have done, around here. That was #BrandonStoneGate part 1.

In the 2018 Portugal Masters of course we had the Lucas Herbert FRL/runner up and Tom Lewis win where I 'famously' got a mention on the Skysports Sunday live broadcast for my "clairvoyant abilities!" This was following my Twitter chat with Lucas where I told him exactly what he was going to do pre event -  and he did it, to the numbers!

Anyway, the European tour markets the last few weeks have been priced up with too much disparity between the front runners and the fields. In reality they are a lot more wide open and prices should be much closer together.  The Portugal Masters this week again opens up opportunities.

My fair (100%) odds and rankings were compiled long before Tommy Fleetwood entered the field : Portugal Masters Odds Chart. I made only 2 guys under 25s with the field 2/1 vs the top 25.

Portugal Masters market

Portugal Masters Target player profile: Aggressive bombers who makes a lot of birdies have a very significant advantage around this track

The course: Dom Pedro Victoria resort course, par 71, yards 7191

Key features

Resort style course: Large undulating greens. Exposed. Water Hazards. The New (ish) Bermuda rough looks like it may play a part this year but new trees still not so much

Premium on: Bombers have a huge advantage around this track - An advantage on par with the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour at Doral, in that they can carry doglegs and trouble / hazards, and be left with short irons into large undulating greens. Proximity to the hole. Par breakers.

It's actually a 2nd shot track. Strong iron play is needed to get close to pin positions on the large undulating greens

Course correlation: Albatross Golf Resort (exact match)

Selected Portugal Masters tips (below)

Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays from both the Euro and PGA Tour are only available through the weekly members email. Make sure to join (a beer ) if you want all selections and key insight direct to your email weekly..

Wilco Nienaber 25/1 ew headlines this week/ He's round his fair price now at 25s/28s or so IMO and I'v e been looking to hit him at a suitable track. I had this week in mind but unfortunately his play the last few weeks has him on many radars. there's still some value in the place part of the bet if you can grab the extra places. Nienaber can be likened to the European Tour's Cameron champ. The South African youngster averages something stupic like 340 yards and leads the driving distance rankings. He can potentialy destroy this course at the Portugal Masters. Friend Garrick Higgo is the other big up and coming talent from SA. I actually call him the 'lefty Cam Champ'.

There have been  a number of American winners of late including two over this side of the water on the Challenge tour with Tyler Koivisto, and John Catlin's recent win in Valderrama. Maybe Johannes Veerman 70/1 or Julian Suri 100/1 can keep that theme alive in Portugal.

Veerman led after round 1 in the South Africa Open at Randpark earlier in the year shooting a 62. This demonstrated what the big hitting American can do on this type of layout. Johannes recorded 7 birdies on the back nine for a 29 in the home stretch and the first round lead. He's averaged around 20th in 4 from 5 events (and one MC) since the restart.

Julian Suri 100/1 has been suffering with injury troubles for the last few years. Probably the biggest American talent playing over this side of the water since Koepka until his injury woes, he bounced back into a little form at the Belfry a few weeks ago. Ultimately he came unstuck in the wind but this test should suit his game. San Crocker and Kurt Kitayama are two more now of course to watch from the US (KK who has already won a couple of times) but not teeing it up here

Brandon Stone 45/1 has been unlucky for us twice in the last year at 100s here, and at 80s in Oman, so maybe it can be third time lucky. He's been simmering since the restart. Valderrama last week wasn't a suitable course but this is and he demonstrated exactly why last year when performing as hoped. Stone is right up there in the driving distance department aswell and excels with his irons too, esp if it blows. He will be out for redemption

The other 3 on the radar are course fit and course specialists of old, all who've shown signs of a return to form of late. Alvaro Quiros 100/1 ew and Alex Levy 100/1 are both previous winners of the event and worth a stab at the prices in various markets.

Justin Walters 70/1 is the 3rd, with a serious emotional and playing affinity with this track. Walters should have won with a fantastic performance at the Belfry where I noted his attitude was far more positive. He was on about being much more attacking an aggressive and had a change of perspective. No doubt for his personality type the no fans is a big positive influence, so coming back to a place he loves and has been twice 2nd at  - both times to actually keep his european tour card - expect him to maybe feature. He's carded 63 here aswell as a bonus. Says he knows the greens fantastically well. We will be on all in the first round leader markets too as a big priced FRL will not surprise at all - often the way

HEADS UP  that you can get my Nicspicks player profiling manual Ebook below, which contains all profiles, information and data for my ratings and selections. Click below for details:
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship