Workday Charity Open Golf Betting Tips - Instalment 1 of 2 at Muirfield Village

Hideki Matsuyama is progressing into top form and The Workday charity Open at Muirfield Village is the 1st of a potential great two weeks for the course specialist

The PGA Tour hits Muirfield Village for a 2 week run with the Workday Charity Open the precursor to next week's Memorial tournament. The Workday Open set up will be a lot easier than the Memorial with different tee and pin positions used, and the greens prepped to run at circa 11' rather than over 13' on the stimp. We are beginning to see some trends and form lines develop now after the hiatus as player's games round into shape after competitive rust. It looks like Memorial in 10 days time will now also be a no fans event.

Note: I've posted my Workday charity open top 20 vs the field odds over on my new Patreon Platform, which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - click the link if you want to see what it's about

Muirfield Village is known as the primary second shot track on tour, and the general theme around here is: give it a rip off the tee but be very measured and accurate on approach (lots of long irons). Leaving the ball above the hole or missing greens on the #shortside especially will lead to automatic bogey or worse.

Workday Charity Open Target player profile

Big hitter who can take advantage of par fives, and excels in the iron department. Experience and course management a big advantage

The course: Muirfield Village: Par 72, 7,392 yards (Memorial 2019)

Key Features

Average size greens (some elevated) surrounded by deep bunkers or very penal rough - tucked pin positions - scorable par 5s - Lush and penal fairway rough - generous landing areas - elevation changes - bomber surfaces - long second shots - deep fairway bunkering

Greens: Bentgrass (average and superfast from above hole but slower this week for the Workday Charity Open)
Fibre: Kentucky, Rye, Fescue (lush and deep around fairways and greens)

Premium on (key metric weightings)
Par 5 scoring (3)
Driving distance (2)
Irons (3)
Proximity approach (3)
Lag putting (2)
Mentality (1 )
Total driving efficiency (1 )
Scrambling (1 )

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from the manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets:

"second shot course" DO NOT #SHORTSIDE


The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings / player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Hideki Matsuyama 16/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.73
Price value: 6
Progressive form rating: 7.7
Course fit-o-meter: 9.3
Overall value bet strength: 7.93

Tip 2: Benny An 66/1 EW / FRL
(see fig 1a below)

Player ability: 8( see manual)
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 7.15
Course fit-o-meter: 8.45
Overall value bet strength: 7.65

Tip 3: Marc Leishman 45/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.35
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 7.15
Course fit-o-meter: 8.1
Overall value bet strength: 7.65

Tip 4: Cameron champ 70/1

Player ability: 7.56
Price value: 8
Progressive form rating: 8.6
Course fit-o-meter: 8
Overall value bet strength: 8.04

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example screenshot above shows Benny An's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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