The Memorial Tournament Golf Betting Tips - Sticking With Course Specialist Hideki

Hideki headlines Memorial Tournament tips

Hideki Matsuyama was pretty flawless tee to green again last week with nearly 80% GIR hit, and had the usual mare on the greens. I'm hoping the slicker surfaces will see a return to the norm for the course specialist at the Memorial Tournament

We have the 2nd week in a row at Muirfield village for the Memorial Tournament. Week 1 at the workday was an enthralling encounter and that was probably Muirfield Village at it's easiest. It wasn't easy. It will be even tougher this week though as the rest of the big boys fly in to make it a major type field and betting market, and what a track to battle it out on.

Jack's place will let the rough grow for the Memorial tournament and the greens will be back to the usual 13+ on the stimp for Memorial. Pin and tee positions will revert to a more normal feel and the #shortside theme and leaving the ball in the right places from approach will be even a more prominent theme in the 2nd edition.

Note: I posted my Memorial Tournament top 20 vs the field odds on Sunday morning over on my Patreon Platform which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - see snippet below

Memorial tournament top 20 odds rankings to 100%

The course fit numbers on all the top players weekly can be worked out using the data in my course fit profiling manual and you can plug the numbers into the model at the bottom of the website

The Memorial Tournament Target player profile tips

Big hitter who can take advantage of par fives, and excels in the iron department. Experience and course management a big advantage

The course: Muirfield Village: Par 72, 7,392 yards (Memorial 2019)

Key Features

Average size greens (some elevated) surrounded by deep bunkers or very penal rough - tucked pin positions - scorable par 5s - Lush and penal fairway rough - generous landing areas - elevation changes - bomber surfaces - long second shots - deep fairway bunkering

Greens: Bentgrass (average and superfast from above hole and even faster this week for the Memorial Tournament)
Fibre: Kentucky, Rye, Fescue (lush and deep around fairways and greens)

It's all about the second shots here at the Memorial Tournament - mainly the longer irons on the par 4s, and it's imperative to hit the fairways on the par 5s and give yourself a chance to set up an eagle (longer hitters need only apply)

Premium on (key metric weightings)
Par 5 scoring (3)
Driving distance (2)
Irons (3)
Proximity approach (3)
Lag putting (2)
Mentality (1 )
Total driving efficiency (1 )
Scrambling (1 )

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my profiling manual to get course fit scores


The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings, and player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Bryson de Chambeau 10/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.68 ( see manual)
Price value: 6
Progressive form rating: 10
Course fit-o-meter: 8.63
Overall value bet strength: 8.33

Tip 2: Rory McIlroy 14/1 EW / FRL
(see fig 1a below)

Player ability: 9.19
Price value: 6.5
Progressive form rating: 9.14
Course fit-o-meter: 9.72
Overall value bet strength: 8.64

Tip 3: Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.73
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 8
Course fit-o-meter: 9.3
Overall value bet strength: 8.4

Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
members mailing list. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. As an alternative, You can also follow and support me on Patreon and all support is very much appreciated.

example screenshot above shows Hideki's player profile and ratings from the course fit profiling manual

Fig 1 (a)

example screenshot above shows Rory's course fit rating and ratings from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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