NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Golf Betting: PGA Championship Tips - Tommy looks a great fit for TPC Harding Park

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Tommy Fleetwood will be 2 tournaments deep in terms of a warm up before the PGA Championships and he should be in perfect shape for a run at the trophy at a good price on a perfect course for him


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The US PGA Championships will make it's 5th appearance in Cali and first in San Francisco when the "test of shotmaking" TPC Harding Park course takes centre stage. No better place to look for clues then than at TPC Southwind for the WGC ST. Jude - a track described as a "shotmaker's paradise". TPC Harding Park itself is described as being built on gently rolling peninsula surrounded by Lake Merced off the Pacific Ocean. There's a clue right there: think wind.

TPC Harding Park hosted the American Express in 2005 and the WGC Matchplay in 2015. In all, 50% of the contenders were European's, solid drivers and fine links exponents. Might not be much of a sample but sometimes it doesn't have to be - just logical and I think the Euro's will really fancy this track for the PGA championships

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PGA Championship Target player profile

Tee to green specialist who can get it out there and control his flight in the wind

The course: TPC Harding Park (Par 70, 7,234 yards)

Key Features:

Very thick Spinach along greens and fairways - pinched fairways (25 yard average), some elevated / contoured greens with deepish bunkers surrounding. Wind to play a part

Greens: Bentgrass (gently undulating - speed will get up)
Fibre: Spinach, although Popeye might struggle to get it out

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Total driving (3)
Wind play (2)
Irons (2)
Approach (2)
Driving accuracy (1)
Holing out (1)
Mentality (2)
Scrambling (1)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my profiling manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets:

Expect players to carry their form over from the WGC ST. Jude.

The winning score here at the American Express (also played as par 70) was -10, with the average score of the top 10 just -6.8.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP TIPS

Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the members mailing list

The weekly selections and ratings are bred from my Course fit profiling manual Ebook which you can check out in detail or buy through the link.. Player and course profiles in the eBook also supply data you can use to plug into my interactive course fit ratings model at the bottom of this website

Tip 1: Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.57
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 7.14
Course fit-o-meter: 8.58(see fig 1.a at bottom)
Overall value bet strength: 8.32


Example screenshot above shows Tommy Fleetwoods's player profile from the Course fit profiling manual

Tip 2: Patrick Cantlay 28/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 9.23
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 8.3
Course fit-o-meter: 9.19
Overall value bet strength: 8.55

Tip 3: Justin Thomas 14/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 9.42
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 9.57
Course fit-o-meter: 9.19
Overall value bet strength: 8.8

Tip 4: Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1 EW / FRL
Player ability: 8.49
Price value: 8.75
Progressive form rating: 9.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.51
Overall value bet strength: 8.76

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Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays from both the European Tour golf and the PGA Tour are available through the members mailing list.

Follow me on Patreon (click link) to receive members emails containing weekly heads ups early on selections, odds charts with estimated fair odds, rankings and selected course fit numbers, plus some bonus content. All support is very much appreciated. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. Cheers guys.

Fig 1.a: Tommy Fleetwood course fit rating Harding Park

Scroll down to interactive course fit model at the bottom of the page and try plugging some numbers yourself on your fancies. The course premium weightings are above

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.