Golf Betting: PGA Championship Tips - Tommy looks a great fit for TPC Harding Park


Tommy Fleetwood will be 2 tournaments deep in terms of a warm up before the PGA Championships and he should be in perfect shape for a run at the trophy at a good price on a perfect course for him

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The US PGA Championships will make it's 5th appearance in Cali and first in San Francisco when the "test of shotmaking" TPC Harding Park course takes centre stage. No better place to look for clues then than at TPC Southwind for the WGC ST. Jude - a track described as a "shotmaker's paradise". TPC Harding Park itself is described as being built on gently rolling peninsula surrounded by Lake Merced off the Pacific Ocean. There's a clue right there: think wind.

TPC Harding Park hosted the American Express in 2005 and the WGC Matchplay in 2015. In all, 50% of the contenders were European's, solid drivers and fine links exponents. Might not be much of a sample but sometimes it doesn't have to be - just logical and I think the Euro's will really fancy this track for the PGA championships

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PGA Championship Target player profile

Tee to green specialist who can get it out there and control his flight in the wind

The course: TPC Harding Park (Par 70, 7,234 yards)

Key Features:

Very thick Spinach along greens and fairways - pinched fairways (25 yard average), some elevated / contoured greens with deepish bunkers surrounding. Wind to play a part

Greens: Bentgrass (gently undulating - speed will get up)
Fibre: Spinach, although Popeye might struggle to get it out

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Total driving (3)
Wind play (2)
Irons (2)
Approach (2)
Driving accuracy (1)
Holing out (1)
Mentality (2)
Scrambling (1)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my profiling manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets:

Expect players to carry their form over from the WGC ST. Jude.

The winning score here at the American Express (also played as par 70) was -10, with the average score of the top 10 just -6.8.


Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the members mailing list

The weekly selections and ratings are bred from my Course fit profiling manual Ebook which you can check out in detail or buy through the link.. Player and course profiles in the eBook also supply data you can use to plug into my interactive course fit ratings model at the bottom of this website

Tip 1: Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.57
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 7.14
Course fit-o-meter: 8.58(see fig 1.a at bottom)
Overall value bet strength: 8.32

Example screenshot above shows Tommy Fleetwoods's player profile from the Course fit profiling manual

Tip 2: Patrick Cantlay 28/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 9.23
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 8.3
Course fit-o-meter: 9.19
Overall value bet strength: 8.55

Tip 3: Justin Thomas 14/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 9.42
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 9.57
Course fit-o-meter: 9.19
Overall value bet strength: 8.8

Tip 4: Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1 EW / FRL
Player ability: 8.49
Price value: 8.75
Progressive form rating: 9.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.51
Overall value bet strength: 8.76

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Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays from both the European Tour golf and the PGA Tour are available through the members mailing list.

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Fig 1.a: Tommy Fleetwood course fit rating Harding Park

Scroll down to interactive course fit model at the bottom of the page and try plugging some numbers yourself on your fancies. The course premium weightings are above
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

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