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GOLF BETTING: 3M Open Tips - Wolff to tame TPC Twin Cities again




Defending 3M Open Champion Matthew Wolff loves this type of low scoring layout, as he showed again in Detroit a few weeks back

We have the 2nd instalment of the 3M Open on the PGA Tour, albeit a shorter version of this track has been in use by the Champions Tour from 2001 to 18. Tom Lehman will tee it up this week at the 3M Open and had a hand in the redesign. This is a shootout, but one that favours the bombers rather than hot putters, with the par 5s and three reachable par 4s on an easy parklands style track exposed in areas. The 3M market looks pretty open with potential angles to exploit, and is a much better betting opportunity than most of the events since the hiatus.

Note: I've posted my 3M Open top 20 vs the field odds over on my
new Patreon Platform which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - see snippet below

3M Open top 20 odds rankings to 100%

course fit numbers on all the top players weekly can be worked out using the data in my course fit profiling manual and you can plug the numbers into the model at the bottom of the website

3M Open Target player profile

Definitely one for the aggressive big hitting par breaker machines. Low scoring required.

Course - TPC Twin Cities - par 71, 7,498 yards

Key Features:
Parkland track - Numerous water hazards - scorable par 5s - generous landing areas - 3 x drivable par 4s - risk / reward par 5 18th over water for dramatic finish

Greens: Bentgrass
Fibre: 3.5 inches (primary 2019)


Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving distance (2)
Irons (3)
Holing out (2)
Par breakers (3)
Approach (2)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from the manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets: Lucas Glover and Matthew Wolff both shot 62 here at the 3M Open last year, tying the course record

3M OPEN TIPS

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings, and player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Matthew Wolff 30/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.66 ( see manual)
Price value: 8
Progressive form rating: 7.7
Course fit-o-meter: 8.7
Overall value bet strength: 8.26


example screenshot above shows Matthew Wolff's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down

Tip 2: Lucas Glover EW 33/1 / FRL
(see fig 1.a below)

Player ability: 7.9
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.43
Course fit-o-meter: 8.37
Overall value bet strength: 7.92

Tip 3: Sam Burns 50/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: n/a
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.57
Course fit-o-meter: 8.6
Overall value bet strength: 8.06


Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
members mailing list. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. As an alternative, You can also follow and support me on Patreon and all support is very much appreciated.

example screenshot above shows Lucas Glover's player profile from the course fit profiling manual

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.