GOLF BETTING: 3M Open Tips - Wolff to tame TPC Twin Cities again

Defending 3M Open Champion Matthew Wolff loves this type of low scoring layout, as he showed again in Detroit a few weeks back

We have the 2nd instalment of the 3M Open on the PGA Tour, albeit a shorter version of this track has been in use by the Champions Tour from 2001 to 18. Tom Lehman will tee it up this week at the 3M Open and had a hand in the redesign. This is a shootout, but one that favours the bombers rather than hot putters, with the par 5s and three reachable par 4s on an easy parklands style track exposed in areas. The 3M market looks pretty open with potential angles to exploit, and is a much better betting opportunity than most of the events since the hiatus.

Note: I've posted my 3M Open top 20 vs the field odds over on my
new Patreon Platform which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - see snippet below

3M Open top 20 odds rankings to 100%

course fit numbers on all the top players weekly can be worked out using the data in my course fit profiling manual and you can plug the numbers into the model at the bottom of the website

3M Open Target player profile

Definitely one for the aggressive big hitting par breaker machines. Low scoring required.

Course - TPC Twin Cities - par 71, 7,498 yards

Key Features:
Parkland track - Numerous water hazards - scorable par 5s - generous landing areas - 3 x drivable par 4s - risk / reward par 5 18th over water for dramatic finish

Greens: Bentgrass
Fibre: 3.5 inches (primary 2019)

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving distance (2)
Irons (3)
Holing out (2)
Par breakers (3)
Approach (2)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from the manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets: Lucas Glover and Matthew Wolff both shot 62 here at the 3M Open last year, tying the course record


The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings, and player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Matthew Wolff 30/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.66 ( see manual)
Price value: 8
Progressive form rating: 7.7
Course fit-o-meter: 8.7
Overall value bet strength: 8.26

example screenshot above shows Matthew Wolff's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down

Tip 2: Lucas Glover EW 33/1 / FRL
(see fig 1.a below)

Player ability: 7.9
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.43
Course fit-o-meter: 8.37
Overall value bet strength: 7.92

Tip 3: Sam Burns 50/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: n/a
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.57
Course fit-o-meter: 8.6
Overall value bet strength: 8.06

Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
members mailing list. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. As an alternative, You can also follow and support me on Patreon and all support is very much appreciated.

example screenshot above shows Lucas Glover's player profile from the course fit profiling manual
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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