The US OPEN , 2nd of this year's majors gets underway at Congressional where although the course will set up a lot differently to tournaments that have been played there recently, a few of my US Open picks will have form on the course. Congressional will play extremely long and greens are set to run at a whopping 13-14 on the stimp according to some early reports. The course is tight and tree lined and rough will be up, making the US Open a very difficult test of golf and it's hard to see it being won by anyone other than a top quality player.

Before betting on this year's US OPEN, make sure to take a look at my golf trading section (includes strategy and profit screenshots) and try your hand at trading for your best chance of being profitable.

2011 US Open Picks
Pick 1: Luke Donald E/W @ 14/1 (general) World no. 1 playing fantastic golf at the moment and every aspect of his game is top notch. He is sneaky long and very accurate off the tee and possibly the best scrambler on Tour. Has the mental toughness to go well in this year's US Open. Great with the flat stick and loves fast greens.

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Pick 2: Lee Westwood E/W @ 14/1 (general) Westwood is back in form with a recent playoff loss to Donald in the BMW at Wentworth. Only a certain type of player can win the US Open and Westwood fits the bill. He is possibly the best driver of the ball there is combining length and accuracy and this will stand him in good stead for the US Open around Congressional.

Pick 3: Hunter Mahan E/W @ 30/1 (general) Has a stand out record in recent AT&T tournaments (8,12,2 in recent years) and the extra length added to the course which will play over 7,500 yards will only give Mahan an added advantage over the field (Hunter ranks 11th in total driving). In fine form this year, extremely consistent and has been working on the mental side of his game. A major winner in waiting and maybe the US Open will be his 1st.

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Pick 4: Steve Stricker E/W @ 40/1 (general) Stricker is currently 3 shots ahead after day 3 of the Memorial as I write this and he's been simmering this season thus far. Memorial sets up quite similar to the Blue Course at Congressional and players who do well this week may do likewise in 2 weeks time. Runner up to KJ Choi on this course in 2007 and ranking 4th in scrambling. Like Luke Donald, he is a fantastic putter and loves fast greens.

Pick 5: Matt Kuchar E/W @ 40/1 (general) The ever consistent Matt Kuchar finished 2010 at the top of the all round ranking stat and currently sits in 4th place this season. In fine form and another with the mental attributes to win major golf championships and great value for this year's US Open. Has the perfect game for US Open golf.

US Open Sleeper Picks
Ben Crane has lost a little form of late but his all round solid game is what catches my eye (125/1) for the US Open. Ranks 9th in scrambling and has no obvious weakness. Proven winner and could be a dark horse at Congressional. Aaron Baddeley (90/1) Baddeley has really sorted himself out this season and has refound form with the driver. What catches my eye about him is a recent quote I saw of his about Congressional where he mentioned it as "One of my favourites". A player in form on a course he loves is a recipe for success.


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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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