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Wells Fargo Championship Picks

2011 Wells Fargo Championship Picks:
Pick 1: Nick Watney E/W @ 22/1 (general) Certain stats are key this week at the Wells Fargo Championships and inputting those into a golf predictor model I sometimes use, Watney is right up at the top for the most important of them and can't be ignored. Decent course form and already a winner for Nic's Picks this year.

Pick 2: Martin Laird E/W @ 35/1 (general) The aforementioned stats include bogey avoidance, par 4 performance, scrambling and driving distance and Laird is another that pops up all over the predictor. Both he and Watney were already in mind and Laird has been really consistent this year. Again, already a winner this year for me and could contend at the Wells Fargo Championships...

Pick 3: Rickie Fowler E/W @ 40/1 (Totesport) The Wells Fargo championship at Quail Hollow is a really tough test of golf and the cream usually come to the fore. Rickie Fowler put in a good performance here last year in his rookie season and often thrives on the tougher courses. Off the back of a decent performance last week at the Zurich.

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Pick 4: Webb Simpson E/W @ 55/1 (BET365) Another who features in the aforementioned predictor model and has the game to really do well here with his driving ability and scrambling stats. On top of his game at the moment, narrowly missing out to Bubba last week. Huge price given the variables this week.

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Wells Fargo Championship Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Brendan De Jonge E/W @ 66/1(PP) continuing the theme of the players with the stats to attack the Quail Hollow course this week and De Jonge certainly has those. Good scrambler and solid driver of the ball has been simmering of late and not afraid to challenge in big company.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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