Wales Open Picks
Pick 1: Symon Dyson E/W @ 20/1 (general) Return to form last week for Dyson on a difficult Wentworth course and has the game to go well round Celtic Manor with a top 20 last year and a T6 the year before. Confidence player can get his season going this week.

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Pick 2: Ross Fisher @ 25/1 (BET365) Fisher has good memories of Celtic Manor playing a big role in Europe's Ryder cup win last year where he had the run of the greens. Tied for 2nd after 2 rounds of the Wales Open last year and his length off the tee will be a big advantage on a course nearly 7,400 yards long to a par of 71.....

Pick 3: Peter Hanson E/W @ 30/1 (BET365) Another with fond Memories of Celtic Manor. Tee to green game is ideal for the Wales Open. High GIR% is essential to avoid the run offs on the greens, leaving very tough up and downs. Also a very capable wind player if it gets up this week.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Wales Open.

Pick 4: Shane Lowry E/W @ 30/1 (general) Has hit top form this season with a top 5 at the BMW, followed with qualification to the US Open in 2nd place just behind Nicolas Colsaerts. Another who can handle bad conditions if the wind blows this week in Wales.

Wales Open Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Johan Edfors E/W @ 55/1 (BET365) Similar to Lowry coming off a big finish last week and also picked up the last qualifying place for the US Open and will be full of confidence for the Wales Open. Length off the tee also a big advantage for Edfors. Multiple winner on tour and won't be afraid if he gets into contention.


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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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