NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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2011 WALES OPEN PICKS

Wales Open Picks
Pick 1: Symon Dyson E/W @ 20/1 (general) Return to form last week for Dyson on a difficult Wentworth course and has the game to go well round Celtic Manor with a top 20 last year and a T6 the year before. Confidence player can get his season going this week.

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Pick 2: Ross Fisher @ 25/1 (BET365) Fisher has good memories of Celtic Manor playing a big role in Europe's Ryder cup win last year where he had the run of the greens. Tied for 2nd after 2 rounds of the Wales Open last year and his length off the tee will be a big advantage on a course nearly 7,400 yards long to a par of 71.....


Pick 3: Peter Hanson E/W @ 30/1 (BET365) Another with fond Memories of Celtic Manor. Tee to green game is ideal for the Wales Open. High GIR% is essential to avoid the run offs on the greens, leaving very tough up and downs. Also a very capable wind player if it gets up this week.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Wales Open.

Pick 4: Shane Lowry E/W @ 30/1 (general) Has hit top form this season with a top 5 at the BMW, followed with qualification to the US Open in 2nd place just behind Nicolas Colsaerts. Another who can handle bad conditions if the wind blows this week in Wales.

Wales Open Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Johan Edfors E/W @ 55/1 (BET365) Similar to Lowry coming off a big finish last week and also picked up the last qualifying place for the US Open and will be full of confidence for the Wales Open. Length off the tee also a big advantage for Edfors. Multiple winner on tour and won't be afraid if he gets into contention.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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