Wales Open Picks
Pick 1: Symon Dyson E/W @ 20/1 (general) Return to form last week for Dyson on a difficult Wentworth course and has the game to go well round Celtic Manor with a top 20 last year and a T6 the year before. Confidence player can get his season going this week.

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Pick 2: Ross Fisher @ 25/1 (BET365) Fisher has good memories of Celtic Manor playing a big role in Europe's Ryder cup win last year where he had the run of the greens. Tied for 2nd after 2 rounds of the Wales Open last year and his length off the tee will be a big advantage on a course nearly 7,400 yards long to a par of 71.....

Pick 3: Peter Hanson E/W @ 30/1 (BET365) Another with fond Memories of Celtic Manor. Tee to green game is ideal for the Wales Open. High GIR% is essential to avoid the run offs on the greens, leaving very tough up and downs. Also a very capable wind player if it gets up this week.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Wales Open.

Pick 4: Shane Lowry E/W @ 30/1 (general) Has hit top form this season with a top 5 at the BMW, followed with qualification to the US Open in 2nd place just behind Nicolas Colsaerts. Another who can handle bad conditions if the wind blows this week in Wales.

Wales Open Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Johan Edfors E/W @ 55/1 (BET365) Similar to Lowry coming off a big finish last week and also picked up the last qualifying place for the US Open and will be full of confidence for the Wales Open. Length off the tee also a big advantage for Edfors. Multiple winner on tour and won't be afraid if he gets into contention.


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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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