2011 Players Championship Picks:
Pick 1: Luke Donald E/W @ E/W @ 16/1 (BET365) Plenty of experience and some good finishes at the Players Championship. Showing the best form of all golfers this year and with his scrambling ability and intelligence around the golf course, my favourite this week for the Players Championship, over Woods and Mickelson.

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Pick 2: Ben Crane E/W @ 35/1 (general) Hoping for a better price on Crane who got us a 20/1 place at last year's Players Championship. Fantastic record at Sawgrass and game been in great shape recently. Always right up there in the all round rankings and every aspect of your game will be tested at The Players.....

Pick 3: Martin Kaymer E/W @ 40/1 (general) Again, Kaymer has every attribute in his game and no real weakness. Great mental strength and ability to control the ball which will be an advantage if the wind gets up as it often does at the Players championship. Holds this event in high regard and extremely motivated this week to make a run at the trophy. Outstanding price.

Pick 4: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 40/1 (BET365) Local man showing signs of form of late. Knows the course inside out and experience is key this week at Sawgrass. Home support a big advantage.

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Players Championship Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Sergio Garcia E/W @ 60/1(BET365) Continuing his return to form of late and no better course to make a come back victory for Sergio Garcia. Previous winner of the Plaayers Championship and course sets up right into his hands with his ball striking ability.


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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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