Memorial Tournament Picks
Pick 1: Nick Watney E/W @ 20/1 (BET365) A name that features regularly on the Memorial Tournament leaderboard in recent years despite a nightmare 12 months ago. Coming off the back of a top 10 at the Byron Nelson, Watney has been extremely consistent this year and has the ideal game for Muirfield Village. The bigger hitters with high GIR stats will be the main focus this week on what is widely known as a "second shot course".

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Pick 2: Matt Kuchar @ 20/1 (general) very similar to Watney this week in terms of reason for a pick. His record in the Memorial Tournament suggests he loves the course set up, also coming off a top 10 last week and 1 of the most consistent and improved players on the PGA Tour. Ranks 12th in GIR% and will use his experience to avoid short siding himself, something you must avoid here at Muirfield.

Pick 3: Justin Rose E/W @ 35/1 (Betfred) Defending champion of the Memorial Tournament and 3rd here 3 years back. Ranks 3rd in GIR% and flights the ball high, enabling him to hold greens which are tough to hit, 1 of the main reasons he does so well around this track.

Pick 4: Rickie Fowler E/W @ 40/1 (Betfred) Got to back Fowler at this price given his performance at the Memorial Tournament last year. Finished runner up to Rose in the end but I can only put that down to nerves down the stretch, having watched how well he dealt with the course for the most part.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Memorial Tournament.

Memorial Tournament Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 50/1 (general) For me, Muirfield sets up a little like Augusta, with wider than average fairways and huge importance on the approach shots to fast and firm greens and BVP had 1 of his best finishes of the season at Augusta, features regularly on the Leaderboard at the Memorial (tied 3rd last year) and off the back of a 3rd place at Colonial last time out.


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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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