2011 Crowne Plaza Invitational Picks

Crowne Plaza Invitational Picks:
Pick 1: Jason Day E/W @ E/W @ 20/1 (BET365) Unfortunately Jason Day has been backed into favourite but I was always going to back him at the Crowne Plaza Invitational if he was in form. Coming off a top 10 last week and has shown brilliant form at his local Colonial, finishing just 1 shot out of the playoff in 2009. Good potential trading opportunity (see below).

Remember: For better value and much bigger odds on outright golf betting, a Betfair account is an essential betting tool. Trading is the best strategy for consistent long term profits and Betfair offer a Free £25 matched bet on sign up. For more info and examples, see my trading strategy here.

Pick 2: Zach Johnson E/W @ 22/1 (general) Defending Crowne Plaza Invitational champion Johnson is just coming into form in 2011. Top 15 finish last week at the Players, closing with a round of -6. He destroyed the course here last year and premium this week is all about accuracy on the tight tree lined track, which Johnson's game is all about......

Pick 3: David Toms E/W @ 35/1 (Boylesports) Toms could have and should have won last week in an outstanding quality field and now tees it up at a course that suits him down to the ground. 1 of the most accurate and experienced players on tour and no reason why he shouldn't challenge strongly again at the Crowne Plaza Invitational.

Pick 4: Brian Gay E/W @ 40/1 (BET365) Again, really coming into form in recent weeks, culminating in a top 15 last week beside Johnson. Possibly the straightest driver on tour and 1 of the best putters. Has course form at Colonial.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Crowne Plaza Invitational.

Pick 5: Steve Marino E/W @ 40/1 (general) It won't be long until Marino gets his break through win on the PGA Tour and he almost did at the Crowne Plaza Invitational in 2009, being 1 of the trio in the playoff. His approach shot accuracy will be key here to the narrow Colonial greens. Coming off a top 20 last week.

Crowne Plaza Invitational Sleeper Pick
Pick 6: Sean O' Hair E/W @ 70/1(Stanjames) Continuing his return to form having went back to his old coach last month. Played better than his top 20 would suggest last week, just making mistakes at crucial times. Huge price this week where his ball striking ability could be a big advantage. Another great trading opportunity.


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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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