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2011 Byron Nelson Championship Picks

Byron Nelson Championship Picks:
Pick 1: Brian Gay E/W @ 28/1 (BET365) Gay has a standout record at the Byron Nelson Championship and has been in fine form in recent weeks. Ranks 5th in bogey avoidance, a key stat this week on a tough track.

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Pick 2: Rory Sabbitini E/W @ 25/1 (general) Again, Sabbitini at the top of his form just now and winner of the Byron Nelson Championship in 2009 with a tournament record -19. Lives in the area and will have support behind him. 14th in bogey avoidance.


Pick 3: John Senden E/W @ 45/1 (BET365) A toss up between Sean o' Hair and John Senden and I've went for the latter as his form at the Byron Nelson is slightly better in recent years and his game was looking good last week at Colonial. Also a Texas Resident.

Pick 4: Charlie Wi E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred) Wi coming off the back of a 2nd place finish last week and has course form at Las Colinas, finishing in the top 10 in 2008. Steady player should be able to cope with the expected windy conditions.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Ed's Byron Nelson Championship.

Byron Nelson Championship Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Brian Davis E/W @ 70/1 (BET365) Game getting progressively better in recent tournaments and could come in under the radar at the Byron Nelson. Just qualified for the Open Championship in top spot this week in Texas and finished 2nd here in 2009. Streaky player.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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