NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Valderrama Andulacia Masters Preview and Tips 2021

Andalucia Masters Tips from Valderrama
The Augusta of the European Tour they call it but if you're thinking about backing big high drawing bombers, don't. Valderrama is the iconic venue on the European Tour and plays host to various tournaments in Spain throughout the years. In fact I thought the Spanish Open was supposed to be played at Valderrama in 2021 and it was possibly hit with one of many schedule changes due to Covid. The European Tour is still adding in events for the end of the year! The Andalucia Masters is the tourney Valderrama is playing host to this year and it's definitely not a test of the big stick. Strategy and positioning from the tee is required and an excellent short game around small greens, many with run offs. The rough around these greens and the wind strength will dictate the scoring. Greens are always firm and fast at Valderrama and elevation changes are a feature. 

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VALDERRAMA KEY METRICS
Below are the premiums and weightings for the key attributes needed at Valderrama. Click on the image to use an interactive version of my course fit model. My course fit profiling manual supplies all precise stats for the model and I'm going to work to make this manual the best bit of golf betting kit around.

WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR AT THE ANDALUCIA MASTERS?

Focus at the Andalucia Masters will unsurprisingly be on a theme of course specialists for the large part. This is one of the biggest "horses for courses" type of tracks for the year so pay attention to course history. Also pay more attention than usual to last week's leaderboard at a correlating course in the same region. We expect similar names up the top of the Andalucia Masters board come Sunday.

The best bet of the week by far in terms of value for me is Pablo Larrazabal at 80/1 ew.  Pablo is a course specialist with figures here that - despite being more than solid - probably don't tell the whole story. The Spaniard is a multiple tour winner at strong events of this ilk and said last week he thought he was playing the best golf of his life. He has just been struggling to put 4 rounds together. Pablo is a shot maker and this track is right up his street.

Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice, full shortlists and sub market plays are available through my members mailing list - click link for info

Martin Kaymer is the standout at the top of the Andalucia Masters betting at around the 28/1 mark. He owns a few near misses and a couple of runner up spots here and hasn't finished outside the top 30 in his last 7 starts. He put in a half decent performance at the Dunhill Links despite a few weeks off over at Whistling Straits.

The two Richards - Bland and Ramsay are big fans of Valderrama and no wonder given they have games to suit the track. Both have been simmering of late and I think their prices are a little on the right side of fair to get onboard with at the Andalucia Masters. Blandy 40/1 finally got that breakthrough earlier in the year for his maiden win and has been somewhat freerolling since. It wouldn't surprise at all to see a quick 2nd added to the portfolio. Richie Ramsay 80/1 ew is always a strong contender where accuracy and a tidy short game are the pre-requisites.

Last but not least for the Andalucia Masters tips are another home man who thrives on accuracy and short game skills in Adrian Otageui at around 50s, and a big outsider to sink our teeth into aswell. Otageui is just coming back into some form at the moment and has solid form around Valderrama. 

Soren Kjeldsen is a player with a similar game and I often like to roll the dice on him at Valderrama at big prices. I think a win, a couple of runner ups, and a 4th here tells its own story. He features on my course fit manual profile page for Valderrama and is pushing 200s here this week. Kjeldsen might also be one to watch in the FRL market if on the favourable side of the draw - usually morning.

If you enjoyed this preview there's plenty on what's behind my methodology and thought process, plus loads more in my golf betting book "Angles & Edges"....

Angles and edges book

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.