Shriners Open Tips - Big Priced Players On The Radar

The Shriners Open at TPC Summerlin is one of my very favourite venues to profile for. We've had quite a bit of success here in the past and last year Martin Laird was one of the players flagged up in my course fit profiling manual as one to watch at the start of the season. 

On the week in question Laird was priced at 200 to 250/1 in the books and bigger on the exchange. since then the manual has thrown up more big winners well ahead of time such as Cameron Champ at 100/1+ for the 3M Open and a near miss but big placer with Ross McGowan in Cran. The ratings in the manual are formulated using official PGA and European tour stats and are currently relevant for season 2022...



Onto this week and half of the guys on the one to watch list in the Shriners Open profile page feature, with Nick Watney being this year's potential Martin Laird. Or one of a few. Watney is a local resident who knows Summerlin better than most and owns some form here at the Shriners including  a runner up to course specialist Kevin Na. TPC Summerlin bears a lot of significant similarities to TPC Boston where Watney also thrived in his heyday. The last month or so has seen a big resurgence in form from Nick culminating in a 2nd place at Sanderson Farms where he ranked 5th for greens in reg and unusually for him - 1st in putting. 

Watney is renowned for his ball striking (especially his off the tee  / total driving ability), which is the major premium at Summerlin, so if he has the flat stick warmed up as well, along with local knowledge I wouldn't be surprised to see him up there competing again this week at a big price of 150/1 ew. At one stage Watney was right alongside DJ in career trajectory so he has the game to beat them all.

Talking about total driving and I'm also going to get another challenger from last week onside in the shape of young Cameron Young. :) Willy Zal talks up the prospects of Young and by all accounts he is going to be one of the best drivers of the ball on tour which should stand him in good stead at the Shriners. The track is at altitude and has some elevation changes and raised greens - that can cause problems for players unfamiliar with the playing conditions so it's probably going to be hit or miss for Cameron but I'm happy to speculate to accumulate.

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The premiums for Summerlin are below. Basically we want a strong with the big stick / tee to green player who makes a lot of par breakers. Experience at Summerlin or similar is a plus.

Other standouts in the Shriners Open market for me this week are Scottie Sheffler and Matthew Wolff towards the top of the board at 22s and 40s respectively. Scottie features in the one to watch list for the Shriners too and of the back of his success in the Ryder Cup, that maiden win isn't far away. His course fit and aggressive play for TPC Summerlin gives him a big advantage over the field. Scottie shot 59 at the correlating TPC Boston track just to add fuel to the fire. Matthew Wolff has been backed by me in the last two editions of the Shriners. He couldn't quite get it going (too many mistakes) in his debut here in 2019 but in 2020 he was only beaten by Laird in  a3 man playoff and he showed what his aggressive play can do to the TPC Summerlin track with a 61 in the process. It's no secret how much I drill the "horses for courses" concept into more serious golf bettors and Wolff is a prime example of strong course fit this week regardless of his figures here. Similar to Champ at the 3M.

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We were on Joseph Bramlett 150/1 here last year due mainly to his local connections and 'two As' Aaron Wise 66/1 is always on the Shrinerdar for similar reasons, if priced generously. Both have extensive track knowledge from practicing and Wise's coach was based at Summerlin ...... he may still be. Bramlett won the Tour Champs on the KFT not too long ago in style and local man Mav McNealy's roomate could be a dark horse here. Wise has averaged 27.5 on the leaderboard in his last 4 events. I believe that is the definition of "simmering". In 2019 I put up all the key stats rankings for this place and Aaron was all over them. He of three different nationalities is a birdie machine when on song.

Again all bets on the shortlist this week for both the Shriners Open and also the Open de Espana can be found only on my members mailing list but I'll round out this piece with the Hoff. Another resident of Las Vegas, Charley used to have a lot of duties here for charity etc and he couldn't really get his prep in properly. I don't think he does as much these days and the Hoffmeister is at around 50/1 at a gaff he knows well. Again, he has that form at TPC Boston too. Remember Charley also likes a flying start.... #FRLdar

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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