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Thoughts and outsiders for the Alfred Dunhill Links and the Sanderson Farms

Alfred Dunhill Links

It's a calm after the storm type week as we wind down the Ryder Cup, and for me it's like a feeler for the final leg of the season run in. It's a similar mindset for a number of the European Ryder Cup group as well with the likes of Shane Lowry, Luke Donald, Martin Kaymer, Tyrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and captain Harrington himself teeing it up at the Alfred Dunhill Links. No better tournament either than the pro-am, hosted at the home of golf. It may pay to oppose some of these guys if you're a match betting player, especially the likes of Martin Kaymer who won't have played many holes of late.

The Alfred Dunhill Links will see the usual who's who of celebrities infiltrate the pro groupings across Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and ST. Andrews (2 rounds). The 1st of those 3 is well known to be the toughest and is known as Carnasty when conditions are brutal. Maybe that's the case for this week as current forecast suggests 15-20 mph winds and rain over the first couple of days. There may be an angle in keeping a close eye on the weather througout the in play.

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With that in mind I'd suggest treading carefully and maybe get a few bad weather players on board. Two such guys who have good records in the Alfred Dunhill Links and are at big quotes of 300-550/1 are Stephen Gallacher and Michael Hoey and I'll have them onside in various markets.

More Speculative plays I really like this week are the simmering George Coetzee 125/1 who is featured on the profile page for the Alfred Dunhill Links in my course fit profiling manual. It has been a strange couple of years for Big George but he can show up anywhere like he did with a win not too long ago on the Saffa Tour. George is a strong fit especially for ST. Andrews where he held the previous course record 62.

Min Woo Lee comes in at around 70/1 ew and also owns a strong course fit rating for ST. Andrews. the Australian is well used to the wind and this type of track and has one of the best swings in the game. His length will be an advantage on the host course and he's a regular near the top of the short game/scrambling stats. Min Woo won in a strong field at Renaissance a couple of months back in Scotland which is quite a similar links course to ST. Andrews.

The main play for the Alfred Dunhill Links will be Robert MacIntyre at around 33s. Another Scot suited to the course and probable conditions, aswell as the right attitude to compete in a slow and fun type pro-am event. Putting on the links is not usually a premium and that negates his weakness.


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Sanderson Farms Championship




Just a quick run through on the Sanderson Farms Championship now where I will also adopt a more speculative smaller stakes approach in various markets including EW and the FRL. 

I'm targeting both Jackson CC and Sedgefield course specialists here. The former is basically the latter in disguise both from an aesthetics and set up point of view. the reason for this is designed John Fought models his courses on Donald Ross designs. Jackson is a little longer than Sedgefield but the same strategic  approach applies: Placement from the markers and leaving the ball underneath the hole from approach.

The standouts for the profile are JT. Poston 150/1 ew who won at Sedgefield going bogey free over 72 holes and narrowly missed out here at the Sanderson Farms last year. Brandt Snedeker 100 and Peter Malnati 125 have the Ws on the tracks and Malnati closed here again with a 63 last year for 2nd place. Sneds is a Donald Ross and Sedgefield lover who has shown glimpses of a return to form of late.

Doug Ghim 80/1 ew is another showing flashes of his potential recently and I think this is the type of track that suits him so I want to get him onside at the Sanderson farms aswell at a decent price.

Angles and edges book

If you enjoyed this preview there's plenty on what's behind my methodology and thought process, plus loads more in my golf betting book "Angles & Edges"....

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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