Wyndham Championship Tips: Zach is Back

The last in the regular season events gets underway from Sedgefield in what is a half decent field but not a great market. I'm going to be avoiding anyone near the top couple of echelons in the betting for the most part and jump straight to course and Donald Ross track specialist Brandt Snedeker, who is the 2nd highest earner at the Wyndham Championship behind Webb Simpson..

Zach Johnson might be closer to this feat if he teed it up more here and you'll note his extremely strong course fit rating of 9.70 below. Both players are short game specialists and excel with the wedges. Sneds was showing progressive form of 38-19-11 before the Barracuda - an event I'm happy to excuse due to wind and altitude variables. Zach has been simmering himself and we got onboard a very much under the radar ZJ here last year at a huge price and he showed his course fit potential, firing a weekend 61-65 to get into the places for us.

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The course - Sedgefield

What we are looking for at Sedgefield is accuracy and positioning off the tee, smart accuracte short iron and wedge shots and a neat short game. Generally the Bermuda greens are super fast from above the hole and as all Ross designs do, they slope from back to front. The Bermuda that lines the fairways can be decieving and it's tricky to play from. Last season saw a ball striking masterclass from Si Woo Kim in much softer that usual conditions where it was basically throwing darts and holing putts, and ultimately Kim came unstuck in the latter department. His mentality is questionable at the best of times so I'll be swerving him at 40s albeit that looks tempting. One for the fantasy teams.

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Premiums and key metrics for sedgefield showing Zach Johnson's numbers and course fit rating. Player and course profiles with all the numbers are available in my course fit profiling manual (click link)

Brian Stuard is a massive 125/1 here in what isn't a super strong field. If we compare this to his OP of 40s in the Barracuda (which I took btw) it looks huge. Again, a MC at Old Greenwood isn't something I will give too much credit as players can really struggle there with distance control given the altitude and the wind. Before that I had earmarked Stuard as one to watch and hoped to get a good course for him. Sedgefield is it. Prior to this event Stuard was t8-t15-t6 in form and if we take a spin through a list of all his best performances there's a fairly obvious theme: The likes of Mayakoba and Waialae crop up and his win came at the Pete Dye designed TPC Louisiana which incorporates upturned saucer like greens. Stuard ranks a more than eye catching 2nd in driving accuracy and 10th in proximity to the hole in 2021.

I'll run through some other fancies on my shortlist now and JT Poston stands out quite a bit. I'm not really getting the 80/1 quotes about one of the best putters on tour who loves Donald Ross designs and correlating tracks such as Jackson CC. It's not as if he's out of form with a narrow miss a few weeks ago vs Seamus Power in the Barbasol Playoff. Poston won here a few years back going all 72 holes without a bogey.

Slovakian Rory Sabbatini, fresh off a shooting a 61 record for the silver medal in the Olympics has form at Sedgefield. One of the reasons he changed his nationality was for the Olympic event and it shows he still has the game if he wants it. Sabba looks overpriced on a track that suits. Same can be said for course specialist Ryan Moore who features strongly in my course fit profiling manual for the Wyndham Championship. Moore's accurate driving and laser like irons are what stands him in good stead around this gaff and he also owns a recent runner up finish at the John Deere.

Last but not least is Denny McCarthy at a huge price who we also backed here at the Wyndham Championship last year at a massive quote. Known for his accurate driving and more so his putting ( he led the tour in strokes gained putting in 2020) we got him onside due to strong course fit and he rallied to a T9 finish with a closing 63. We wade in again, and don't be surprised to see a high priced first round leader like Denny or Stuard.

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Brandt Snedeker 55/1 ew/frl
Zach Johnson 60/1 ew/frl
JT Poston 80/1 ew/frl
Rory Sabbatini 80/1 ew/frl
Ryan Moore 80/1 ew/frl
Brian Stuard 125/1 ew/frl
Denny McCarthy 250/1 ew/frl

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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