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WGC ST. Jude Invitational, Barracuda and Hero Open top tips and thoughts

We have 3 tournaments to sink our teeth into this week. The WGC from TPC Southwind which proved to be a decent event last year, the Barracuda - at the PGA tour's Cran Sur Sierre, and the Hero Open in Scotland. None of the three appeal that much is truth so plenty of more speculative plays are on the horizon and I'll just run through the best of them here


Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through my members mailing list


First of all TPC Southwind is a shot makers track. The rough depth usually dictates the scoring and it was a little less penal for the WGC last year than it often has been for the ST. Jude Classic. Greens are equipped with false fronts and run offs and there is plenty of water. A strong short game is required. Below are the key metrics and premiums for TPC Southwind.


Note: You can click the image to use the interactive version of the model. See my profiling manual (click) for all details and stats.


The ones to watch list on the TPC Southwind profile from the manual includes Phil Mickelson and Billy Horschel - 2 shot makers who enjoy the course very much and have the course history stats to back that up. Both are available at much bigger prices than usual and worth having a dabble on in various markets. Outright prices of 80s and 100s respectively in the books

Harris English is another getting my attention at around 45s. Harris is a self confessed lover of treelined tracks and has 2 wins already this year. He has the all around game to prevail here, and probably has done well here before - I can't be arsed checking

keep scrolling for thoughts on the Hero Open and Barracuda......

 
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The main bet for me in the Hero Open will be Garrick Porteous at around 66/1, both in the main outright EW market and also the FRL market. Garrick featured on this track last season albeit in a different comp. He is simmering currently form wise so has that course and current form concoction along with a juicy price that we look for.

At the Barracuda Brian Stuard was supposed to be the main bet but in truth 40s is touch and go in what is a very weak field, but if you can get the 7 places there might be a small bit of positive EV in him. 

The altitude is a bit of a concern as it's his approaches and wedges that he has been firing with and obviously some players struggle with distances in these types of events. Hopefully not him. 

Big Bo Hoag is in a similar hoat, I mean boat - he should have contended strongly at the 3M Open but made a bit of a ronnie out of it on day three down the stretch leaving him too much to do. A possible bounceback like we often see in these situations might be on the cards.

I'm going to have a bit of a stab on two fliers in Michael Gligic and Will Gordon, the latter especially as it's stableford which will give him some breathing room. Gligic has been floating up on the progressive form radar. Both are available at 150s ew + and of interest in the top 20 and FRL markets

Remember you can get my full shortlist of plays in the members email each week for all events. Oh, and buy my book below, and my course fit manual below that if you're feeling giddy


NEW: my book "ANGLES & EDGES" has been getting plenty of good feedback. It covers everything in 15 years of golf betting & beating the markets and will be a good read for Open Championship week - Take a look:


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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