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Northern Trust Tips - Scotty Too Hotty

The first of the play off events gets underway from one of the most scenic venues in golf: a view out on New York harbour and the Statue of Liberty. Liberty National GC is described as a parkland-links style layout off the bay. It's in pristine condition. The wind can get up here and member Philly Mick who is playing a money game there today (Tue) said previously:

"The hard holes here are ridiculously hard, and the easy holes are pretty easy," "And because of that, we are going to see lots of birdies and bogeys, which is exactly what happened in my round." - Phil Mickelson

So, key word: volatile, one for the inplay traders perhaps?

We had Patrick Reed here 2 years ago and following him closely it was the first time I've seen him discard his stock draw from the tee to get to grips with some of the shot shapes from the markers. He played with predominantly a fade and he did it with aplomb. Not a plum, no plums here, just golf balls, and Patrick Reed balls. Of course Johnny Rambo was the man who missed out and he also owns the big left to right shot. Coincidence maybe. Or maybe not.

So a ball striking tee to green expert who likes to play a fade? MR. Laser irons himself Collin Morikawa anyone? Yes please, and why not throw in a side of Viktor Hovland while we are at it. Both players are possibly slightly bigger than they might have been after lacklustre run-outs at the Fedex ST. Jude. That was obviously off the back of their Olympic exploits, but they should be refreshed and ready to go again now....

This is Adam Scott's profile from my course fit profiling manual, where he was ranked no.20 at the start of the year. If you haven't got the manual yet you're potentially missing out on winners such as Martin Laird 200/1 and Cameron Champ 125/1, so do yourself a favour.... click the image for manual page

Scotty is a former winner here at Liberty National GC as he said last week at Wyndham where he was bullish of his chances of winning both events! He could and perhaps should have notched the 'W' at Sedgefield, missing a 4 footer in a playoff which would have banked him the beans. It's no coincidence Scot has hit the win and top 5 in the two strokeplay events staged at Liberty National where he owns 7 out of 8 rounds in the 60s, including a closing 65 last time out 2 years ago. He edged out Tiger Eldric Woods amongst others in 2013. As mentioned, It's a ball strikers' track where those adept in the wind and who can play a low fade have an edge. Tee to green will be key and that's where Adam scott thrives, ala Riviera

I talk in my Angles and Edges book (below) about the fact that in this day and age it's not necessarily a bad strategy to auto-play some of the elite when they slip past a certain price threshold (with extra places) as it can be a little bit random from week to week who turns up on the leaderboards, especially in these stacked events. As Padraig Harrington says (also a chapter in my book) the guys whose drivers are firing on the week will be the ones contending. This is Tony Finau right here, right now. Hideki did it at the Masters (50.00 on the machine), Morikawa did it at the Open Championship (42.00 on the machine). Bentgrass greens should give Finau some respite with his putting woes and he owns that stock fade shot we are looking for, and he obv excels with the iron game, especially long irons which we are targeting here. I can't leave my man Big Tony out at this price.

NORTHERN TRUST PICKS

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Collin Morikawa EW 18/1 (extra places)
Victor Hovland EW 33/1
Adam Scott EW 40/1 / FRL (extra places)
Big Tony EW / FRL 50/1


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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