Italian Open Betting Tips - Huge price on Paratore

100/1 Home boy Paratore in potential Ryder Cup warm up at Marco Simone GC in the Italian Open..................

Renato Paratore has been finding his game for most of the year but appears to have turned a corner of late looking at the form figures. This upturn culminated in a strong challenge and ultimately a t7 in Cran - Montana last week, a track that arguably doesn't particularly suit the lanky big hitting Italian. As I said in Tuesday morning's members email, Paratore has a ceiling as high as ST. Peters Basilica. This means that when he's on he can *really* be on and he's already shown us with 2x wins and a couple of runner ups on the European Tour. 

Marco Simone is not a new signing for Wolves, it's the name of this week's venue, one you should take note of as it will host the next Ryder Cup on European soil. It apparently plays 7,268 yards to a par of 71 but maybe take that with a pinch of salt given the horrendousness of the European Tour, losing their course info page which was one of life's simple pleasures. Ah the days....

To me this track looks a little quirky. We have some form figures to look back on from long ago but there isn't too much to be garnered from that. Aesthetically it's a kind of parklands/linksy style with the fescues we've seen lining the fairways at the London club and at Albatross also in play here. My conclusion is that we will be looking for a solid all around type player.

Step up Justin Harding. The Saffa has been simmering nicely all season really following his win at Karen GC in Kenya and he looks like he might be about to peak again. A form line of t19 - 2 - 7 was backed up by just a t32 in the Omega Masters. Cran-Sur-Sierre is a very specific course though and Harding admitted he struggled to adapt on his first visit. That may mean a few points of extra value in the Italian Open for backers this week.

Matthew Jordan is another I like in the course fit area.  It's not an overly long track, with links type features and creativity needed around the greens which is Matthew's type of test. He's coming here off the back of 2 top 6 finishes in the last 3 events preceding the Italian Open.

Paratore isn't the only Italian on my radar as Francesco also gets the nod.......not Molinari though, it's Laporta at a whopping 250/1 I'm going to take a stab on. The Italian stallion has been creeping onto my radar of late with plenty of mini bursts of form. He impressed me a lot at the Irish Open finishing 4th and he's a whopping price to put 4 good rounds together in front of his home crowd. If a players current form figures show a few MCs sometimes I like to go in and see the actual score's they've been shooting and I feel like Laporta is in better form than the stats show. Interestingly he's available at 16s in the top Italian market and his compatriot Paratore is 10s in what is a small heat.

My main fancy here towards the front of the Italian Open market is my man Garrick Higgo. His talent is growing exponentially and I think he's is one of the top 5 even top 3 players in the field at the current time. He's now shown everyone his serious closing ability and this course looks a nice fit.

I'll round off the Italian Open preview with 3 big outsiders all of whom have some sneaky form that's not reflected in the prices. Again, all three fit the predicted course fit profile (click for manual): Dale Whitnell has been right in the mix on the weekend 3 times in the last couple of months and Maverick Antcliff has been simmering along nicely. This for me is an Aussie type course regarding creativity around the greens which may give him an edge. 

Scott Jamieson -  who often starts fast (FRLdar) - rounds out the trio. The Scot should also like the test at hand and he opened 67-67 last week to come onto my radar. 250/1 is worth a shot for me in various markets.

Note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice, and full shortlists  are available through my members mailing list 

Italian Open Betting  Tips

Tip 1: Garrick Higgo 33/1 ew

Tip 2: Justin Harding 40/1 ew

Tip 3: Matthew Jordan 66/1 ew

Tip 4: Renato Paratore 100/1 ew

Tip 5: Maverick Antcliff 150/1 ew

Tip 6: Dale Whitnell 200/1 ew

Tip 7: Francesco Laporta 200/1 ew

Tip 8: Scotty Jamieson 250/1 ew

If you enjoyed this preview there's plenty on what's behind my methodology and thought process plus loads more in my golf betting book "Angles & Edges"....
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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