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European Masters and BMW Championship Tips

World #2 Big Tony crushes a stacked field in style

A fantastic win by Big Tony last week and of course we were on board as he made a mockery of his SP, waving goodbye to variance as he nears and gears up on exploding past expectancy. The big guy now leads the Fedex Cup standings and may prove tough to catch as we head to another course that should suit him in the par 72, circa 7,540 yard Caves Valley GC. I will be keeping the powder dry for the most part there as I don't know enough about the course, and the market will be tightening up with only 70 elite guys in the field and no cut. Scroll down for my top 20 rankings....


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It's over in Cran on the European Tour where I see some nice plays at a standout venue, following a particular theme. We are at altitude in the mountain on the tight treelined Cran Sur-Sierre track. A top short game is required to tackle the small up-turned saucer like greens, and experience here is a big advantage. Below are the key metrics and premiums at Cran. Scroll past the BMW rankings for European Masters picks.

Cran: Key metrics and premiums

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS CHART

As you can see I do make DeChambeau and Tony Finau a smidge of value. The big man's confidence will be through the roof and as I said, the course looks (from pics) a nice fit again. Back to back winners in the playoffs has happened a few times before with momentum and adrenaline carrying over.

EUROPEAN MASTERS PICKS

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Jamie Donaldson 50/1 ew and Danny Willett 45/1 ew both fall under the course and current form concoction theme. Both are solid in the total driving department so can keep it in play but also reach the risk reward holes easily. Both players are tidy around the greens, where Donaldson sits 30th in scrambling this year after a return to form following injury. No coincidence then that Willett is a former winner here and Jamie has come close. He is showing progressive form figures of 64-35-3 and was on the shortlist for the Czech Masters but opted out. Bear in mind these two are a couple of the better players in the field in terms of ceiling.

Another renowned for his game around the greens and who sits by Donaldson in the scrambling stats this year is Alex Bjork 70/1 ew. He's also showing some good form with a couple of top 6s in recent weeks and he has some progressive figures of t51 and t26. The greens at Himmerland where Bjork recorded 1 of those top sixes are not to dissimilar to Cran and short game specialists come to the fore there too. Bjork won the China Open in 2018 and has also been close at the tight treelined Hong Kong GC in Fanling.

Bjork nudged out Adrian Otageui 66/1 ew in China in 2018 and the Spaniard is also on the radar for us here. Again, Adrian is a player who excels in the 'around the green' and 'driving acuracy' departments and has also been simmering of late with a 2nd in the Scandinavian mixed in the books. Again like Bjork, he is another whose form lines show strong pedigree at tracks such as Himmerland and Le golf Nacional where short game is key.

Recent winner MinWoo Lee 66/1 ew looks overpriced here in this company following his superb playoff win over a strong field in Scotland. I expect the Aussie and his super swing to start really realising his potential now. He sits 4th in the scrambling department which is a must for Cran. He won't need his biggest weapon - which is his driver - on many holes, but he can make mince-meat of the short par 4s and par 5 scoring stretches.

We give a nod to John Catlin 66/1 ew who again fits the accuracy and short game profile strongly and has wins put away at tight tracks such as Valderrama and Galgorm Castle and Ross McGowan also features at 400/1 ew. I'll deffo have him in the FRL market too at 200s +EW. McGowan is in the ones to watch section of my course fit profiling manual. He has some serious form here from way back in the day but is simmering at the moment and he could find it again at a venue that fits his eye.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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