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Cazoo Classic Tips: Fisher-Price

 Going old skool with Ross Fisher at the Cazoo Classic

 We are winding the clock back this week, Ross Fisher style. The London Club was a venue I liked profiling for back in the day and I still vaguely remember a certain links loving Englishman destroy the course and blitz the field in what was some testing weather here in 2008. It's not coincidence, some players just love specific types of courses and when you look at this lengthy inland links type track and compare it to the likes of Copperleaf where Fisher also blitzed the field in the Tshwane Open, you'll see why.

Ross is showing sporadic form at the moment with 65 for openers at the Hero last week. He owns a couple of top 15s of late and sits 50th in tee to green this season. He is the man I was referring to in Monday's early tweet and looks a bet for the Cazoo Classic at 80/1 EW 


The course....

The London Club is a par 72, playing 7327 yards and the target player profile this week is a strong tee to green ball striker who is able to handle windy conditions. Large enough greens and generous landing areas offer some forgiveness but overly errant shots will be punished by the wispy stuff. The short hitting Christian Cevear won in 2009 here with a utility club masterclass. That was an outlier and taking advantage of the par 5s this week is important. The wind was also up that week

Course key metrics and premiums for the London Club, showing ross Fisher's course fit rating. 

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James Morrison 50/1, with the golf he is playing at the moment,  and with the not too dissimilar test to last week in terms of wide open links style courses, looks a little spicy. He was flying on Sunday and got chinned at 1.35 having posted -23. A week previous he missed the cut which is perhaps factored into his possibly slightly inflated price. The reality though is that Morrison was actually contending in that event aswell before an unexplained trip in an ambulance down the stretch where he dropped about 8 shots in a few holes. James is on fire and there's no apparent reason why he won't be up there again at the Cazoo Classic.

Matthew Southgate 50/1 when it come to links type tests is always one to watch especially when the wind is likely to get up but his striking is usually on point regardless, ranking 52nd in tee to green in 2021.. he was 2nd in Germany a few week's back and not ignoring a closing -8 to finish on Sunday in the Hero. He seems to be rounding back into form ahead of a test on a track that's a good fit for the Cazoo Classic....


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Lucas Bjerregaard 125/1 ew is another in the same boat as the next 2 picks, both in terms of old skool players in the doldrums finding a bit of form again, aswell as the big price, and game style factors. The big Dane struggled for a long time but has been showing some progressive form the last few weeks finishing 32nd at a track that doesn't fit on paper at Galgorm, and following up with a top 10 at the Hero which of course included a course record 62 in the process. Despite a poor season Bjerregaard lies 22nd in par 5 scoring. Siding with quality players like this early when returning to form is the way to go before the data starts reflecting the form and showing in the price. we usually see a few week buffer in these situations should Lucas continue his rise

Callum Shinkwin 55/1 ew - Shinks again follows this weeks Cazoo Classic theme and is regularly unpopular with the market, despite having grabbed his maiden win last year. He disappeared a little for a while but bounced back in Wales for us and has kept the run going with 4 rounds in the sixties last week. He just couldn't quite get it going with bogeys coming at the wrong time. Shinks loves a links style test and excels tee to green, he's one of the longer guys in the field and can capitalise on the par 5 opportunities

Last but not least I'm going to take a chance on Alvaro Quiros at 175/1 ew and also in the sub markets. Quiros has a similar style game to Ross Fisher and also owns form here at the London Club having had a chance to win in 2009 going down the last, but ending up spraying his ball and battling the crowds. Quiros has also been simmering of late and bookended the Hero Open last week with opening and closing rounds of 66. The short game is where Alvaro falls down but with a bit of room off the tee and large enough greens here, this is his type of layout. The Spaniard's approach game looked on point last week.

CAZOO CLASSIC PICKS


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1. James Morrison 50/1 ew / frl
2. Matthew Southgate 50/1 ew / frl
3. Callum Shinkwin 55/1 ew / frl
4. Ross Fisher 80/1 ew  / frl
5. Lucas Bjerregaard 125/1 ew / frl
6. Alvaro Quiros 175/1 ew / frl

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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