Olympics Golf, ISPS World Invitational and season recap
Winners advised this year on the 'members'🍺mailing list📧:— Bryan Nicholson (@NicsPicks) May 3, 2021
Max Homa 55/1
Sergio Garcia FRL 70/1
Matt Fitz FRL (dh) 50/1
Matt Jones 80/1 win & FRL 66/1
Stewart Cink 150/1
Thorbjorn Olesen FRL 45/1
Dean Burmester 55/1
Sam Burns 80/1
ROI%: 1 miiiiiwwwwoooonnn percent pic.twitter.com/t53I9AQ0x7
Keep scrolling down for Olympics and this weeks golf......
Cameron Champ was another fantastic win as it was all about course fit which is basically my key to success through the years. Course fit is all about interpretation, it's not easily quantifiable, and essentially it's an amalgamation of strokes gained categories. I've been using this strategy since before strokes gained was born, just without actual numbers. I built my interactive model (click) to put a number on it for you guys so you can see exactly how suited players are to each track. I don't know too much about modelling and this is quite basic Excel. I'm qualitative over quantitative.
Below is the profile from my course fit profiling manual (click) for TPC Twin Cities and you can see Cameron was flagged for this event well ahead of time which is what my manual is all about. It can be purchased below. The manual with the model allows you to compute course fit numbers for a list of courses, players and events. It has around 100 player profiles at the moment detailing strengths and weaknesses, and 40 odd course profiles with more to come. (see target player profile and ones to watch)
Please note the best place to get all my plays early and directly to your inbox is through my members mailing list (click)
The strong angle I want to play this week is in Tokyo. It's about the heat and humidity the players will face over there in Japan, akin to the Rugby world Cup. I did the conkers in that tournament and that was a variable that went against me so I'm out for revenge. I think plenty of players will struggle, especially if not motivated, so I'm targeting guys from warmer climates like South America or Asia itself.
The course is long enough at around 7,400 yards par 71 and there's been some rain in the vicinity. It looks like we are expecting thickish rough and slowish receptive greens on a treelined track. It will be all about tee to green and ball striking if so, and on slow greens putting advantage is usually negated, so it's down to randomness, or variance, as to who heats up the flat stick on the week to go with ball striking prowess.
Taking all this into account my two main plays are South Americans in Abraham Ancer 22/1 and Joaquin Niemann 22/1 EW. Both fit the complete profile to a tee, excelling in ball striking and often let down on the greens. Both are extremely motivated. Ancer is one of the best long iron players in the game.
Talking about motivated, we have Koreans; Sunjae Im 28/1 and Si Woo Kim 50/1 who pulled out of the Open Championship to prepare for this. South Korea has mandatory military service but any athlete who wins an Olympic medal is excused so these two will be also be highly motivated, not to mention Si Woo is one of the best in the game tee to green, while Sungjae is competent in every department.
Keep scrolling for ISPS Handa thoughts.....
Another South American also gets the vote and it's Seba Munoz 66/1 who many will know I've been a big fan of for a couple of years and he's probably the biggest surprise in my course fit manual rating an overall 8.62 - he was even higher last year iirc. Munoz likes a fast start and will be backed for the #FRLdar. Take a look at his profile from the manual and the tests he's suited to:
2 guys I like mainly in the sub markets (small outrights aswell) then are Anirban Lahiri and Jazzy Jane at big prices who closed with 65 and 67 respectively at the Barbasol and the Open in their last outings. Lahiri was t3 there at Barbasol. I like him mostly due to his record in this type of climate and performance on tight treelined tracks. Lahiri is a bit of a course specialist at Gavin Green's (who I'll also be dabbling on FRL) TPC Kuala Lumpur and that's the track I think about when I anticipate the heat and humidity this week. Jazz is also a greens in reg specialist who has started to pop up in higer grade events. The Thai will be well used to these conditions.
Over in the ISPS Handa World Invitational the first thing that stood out in the market was bet 365 140s for openers on Shubankar Sharma. A big thing for me is hidden form and signs of progressive form - stuff that's not in the bare data and therefore not reflected in the odds. Stuff like closing with a 63 at Celtic Manor but still not finishing high enough up the leaderboard to affect his price. Sharma was a top player a few years ago and when a guy like that shows spurts of form, he's worth chancing at such a price, especially at certain places like Glagorm Castle where accuracy is king.
My other huge variable besides course fit is progressive form and check out the image below: This is the very definition of progressive form - David Law 70/1 ew closed out the weekend in Wales with 69-66 and what's more his European tour win came at the cosanctioned ISPS Handa Vic Open in 2019
There are a few more on the radar here including Steven Brown, Paul Peterson and massive outsider and home man Michael Hoey who can turn up anytime like he did at the Dimension Data shooting 63 in the 1st round. He also turned up at the Irish Challenge at Portmarnock in May finishing 7th.
Of the front runners here I like Adrian Otageui and Masahiro Kawamura both at 28/1 EW...
If you are enjoying my content and would like to know more about what's behind my thinking and picks, and also how to beat the markets and win long term in golf betting, I've just published my first book called "ANGLES & EDGES - a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets", and I appreciate every copy sold through different formats - print, ebook and kindle. I'm hoping it becomes the go to guide for golf betting.
Best of luck this week as always,