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2021 Open Championship betting tips and preview - Poults to deliver?


Darren Clarke defied the odds the last time the Open Championship was at Royal ST. Georges. He gobbled up "sandwich" with plenty of side sauce. Why? The Open Championship levels out the playing field. It's the major most wide open. It's the luck element to links golf and the actual elements that makes it so interesting. Clarke was around 300.0 on the exchange pre event. Louis Oosthuizen was 400.0 the year before him when he won the Open. Adam Scott bogied his last 4 holes to allow Ernie Els in for victory, not to mention Jean van der velde... 

We've seen huge priced winners such as Todd Hamilton, and indeed Ben Curtis right here at ST. Georges aswell. The wind is forecast to be up and with this gaff being one of the more tricked up Open venues, who is to say we won't see another huge priced victor at the 2021 Open Championship. The guys at the top of the market may not be the guys fighting for the Claret Jug come Sunday

Scroll on for Open championship picks....

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Open Championship Odds chart & Rankings


Course information - ST. Georges


Key metrics and premiums for ST. Georges (sandwich)

Truth be told, we can narrow down the field as usual and look for any decent edge available but on a track like this and when the elements come into play, predictive ability is diminished significantly. Wind and links specialists are a prerequisite but even that's not enough. Short game will be at a premium and a strong mentality will be required. 

Open Championship Picks

Looking back at the two most recent editions of the Open at Sandwich there is a bit of an American feel to the leaderboards. Rickie Fowler contended strongly here in 2011, as did Dustin Johnson. The course did allow for some more through the air type golf. Fowler has a very strong pedigree in these types of events. He has won the Scottish Open at Gullane and has all the shots for this type of test. Form wise he's simmering at the moment after a spell in the doldrums but a top 10 at the PGA followed by a t11 at Memorial stands him in good stead. 

It's Ian Poulter I'm most interested in this week at the prices and it might be time the postman delivers. I thought a closing 63 for a t4 in Scotland might see his price a bit shorter. Poulter has all the attributes required for links golf. His play around the greens will give him a big advantage here but it's also his mentality that stands out. We know how well Ian can perform when highly motivated and having been so close to tasting Open Championship success, he knows he won't get too many more opportunities.

It's a similar story for Lee Westwood who looked like the man to beat for quite a while last week in Scotland. We've already talked plenty about Lee's new freerolling attitude these last few years and he is often up there in this particular championship. Former winner of the Dunhill Links and what an achievement winning the Race to Dubai last year. Lee was beaten narrowly in two big US  events earlier in the season at the Players Championship and the Arnold Palmer and I think he's being  a little under valued by the market here at around 50/1

From nearer the front of the Open Championship market I like Tyrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick  - two fine links exponents with the accuracy and short game attributes needed to tackle Royal ST. Georges. Fitz missed out in a playoff last week in Scotland while Hatton rallied with a closing 65 to warm up nicely.

I'll round out with probably one of the finest links and fast firm conditions golfers on the planet in Marc Leishman, and Open Championship Specialist Sergio Garcia. Both have been as near as you can get without actually winning an Open Championship, losing in playoffs. Sergio has been t2 on another occasion, and Leish has also contended in other years. 

Both players are simmering with current form - Leishman was edged out at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago. Sergio Garcia was a feature in the two most recent previous Open editions from ST. Georges so has shown already a liking for the track.

Open Championship 2021 Tips:


Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through my  members mailing list  - the tips below were sent out Monday afternoon

Note: There are plenty of extra places EW about for the 2021 Open championship

Tip 1: Ian Poulter 80/1 EW
Tip 2: Rickie Fowler 80/1 EW
Tip 3: Marc Leishman 60/1 EW
Tip 4: Tyrell Hatton 33/1 EW
Tip 5: Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1  EW
Tip 6: Sergio Garcia 60/1 EW
Tip 7: Lee Westwood 50/1 EW


NEW: my book "ANGLES & EDGES" has been getting plenty of good feedback. It covers everything in 15 years of golf betting & beating the markets and will be a good read for Open Championship week - Take a look:


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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