NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Irish Open Preview and fancies from Mount Juliet

Martin Kaymer can continue his great form at Mount Juliet

Who loves a parklands? Martin Kaymer 20/1 loves a parklands, especially one that places a premium on tee to green profiency and the mid irons. One designed by the fader that was Jack Nicklaus to boot. Mount Juliet has previously been voted the top parklands course in Ireland and it's a fantastic venue for the Irish Open. It will play very similarly to Munich Eichenried last Sunday so pay close attention to the BMW International leaderboard and expect those showing good form in Germany to continue their progress in Kilkenny.

We will see graded rough along the fairways but very fair and I can tell you in Ireland barring outlier weather conditions the morning players should recieve a full stroke advantage on this layout. Softer smoother greens and 10 mph less of wind are the ingredients around this island. 1pm on the dot the wind comes in 6 out of 7 days a week. (dislaimer: this isn't *always* the case). 5 lakes feature throughout with strategically placed bunkering and large greenside sand pits. Keep scrolling for my Irish Open rankings and estimated fair odds.....

"I think the golf course is absolutely gorgeous, the fairways are perfect, the greens are the best greens we've putted on all year, including the majors. these things are absolutely pure" - Tiger

Mount Juliet Key Metric Premiums

Irish Open rankings and Odds Chart

As you can see I give a high chance of around 60% that the Irish Open winner will come from the top 10 this week. In fact I make Rory McIlroy almost as likely as the field (field = outside the top 20) - who would you rather have onside?

You'll notice Justin Harding 55/1 and Pablo Larrazabal 80/1 are two guys I make big value vs the market prices. Both are solid ball strikers who play their best stuff on this type of parklands layout. Pablo is a 2 time winner at last week's Munich Eichenried venue and both featured in Germany. Larrazabal owns wins at Le Golf National and has a solid record at the likes of Valderrama. His progressive form lines correlate nicely with Harris English who just won the Travelers Championship showing similar in the run up - this is the type of form trend we look for. Justin has shown us some strong wind pedigree and this will stand him in good stead if it does get blowy, which is often the case over here.

Joost Luiten 50/1 is another who excels on this type of track and tee to green is his bread and putter. Joost gets penalised for chipping especially off tight lies and there probably wont be too much of that at Mount Juliet. He's been simmering a bit of late without really getting into contention but this is his type of test and I have him aroudn half his general market price.

I can say similar about the likes of big hitting Wilco Nienaber and Laurie Canter. Nienaber came in at triple figures in some places. He was the longest in the field at the US Open at Torrey Pines but lost alot of strokes putting. Wilco needs to tone it down a bit but he's gathering a lot of experience. He showed us he can compete at the treelined parkland tracks at Randpark when he pushed Joachim Hansen all the way and he also won the Dimension Data this year which was mainly played over the Montagu parkland course. If he can keep it relatively straight off the tee at Mount Juliet he could feature.

Laurie Canter 50/1 was onside for the European Open at the Lengthy Green Eagle. He was derailed by a 9 on the par 5 18th in his first round. The spinach was very much up here so the long hitting didnt have quite the benefit I thought it might. I want to keep Laurie on the list at a price I think is too big.

Rasmus Hojgaard 60/1 is in a similar vein and he won at the Belfy (Brabazon) last year which is another decent parklands guide to how the play might go at Mount Juliet. Rasmus is showing some progressive form culminating in a top 20 last week. He's been priced significantly shorter in similar fields before which shows the fickleness of golf markets and this kid has serious potential.

Irish Open Tips

Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through my  members mailing list  - tips sent before Tue lunchtime

Martin Kaymer EW
Joost Luiten EW
Justin Harding EW
Pablo Larrazabal EW
Wilco Nienaber EW
Laurie Canter EW
Rasmus Hojgaard EW

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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