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2021 US Open Golf Betting Tips - Bomb and Gouge the Brief at Big Tony Pines?


Jon Rahm is a justifiable favourite for the US Open in my opinion, given his affinity with Torrey Pines, but with the test that awaits, Bryson has to be right there alongside him. Torrey is obviously a regular stop on the rotation and the difference this week on the South course will be the tightening of some landing areas and the rough will be grown longer and thicker.

That's not new though at Torrey and it remains to be seen if the old tactic of bomb and gouge can still be of use. The thing at Torrey is there is little obstruction from off the fairways to the greens and if you're strong enough there's an opening into every green from the rough. Bryson has shown us so far that he performs best on open courses where the rough is supposed to be the penalty. He is proabably the best player at the moment from thick rough with his strength to gouge it out. Indeed last year's US Open win triumph was with a similar brief. Bryson DeChambeau has drifted to 18s with extra places and is now an auto bet.

I talk about Jon Rahm's relationship with Torrey Pines in my book in a chapter on course fit. You can click here to check out the book information or buy the book via below:
NEW: my book "ANGLES & EDGES" has been getting plenty of good feedback. It covers everything in 15 years of golf betting & beating the markets and will be a good read for US Open week - Take a look:


US Open Odds chart and Rankings

Below are my US Open rankings in order from 1-25 with my estimated fair odds and course fit rating numbers from my course fit model (I know I know)


Course Information - Torrey (Tony) Pines

The Torrey Pines / Farmers Insurance Open Profile Page from my course fit profiling manual is below. Everything will be relevant for the US Open, except all four rounds are on the South Course

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Torrey Pines Premiums and key metrics:
The image above shows the key metric weightings for Torrey South with Tony Finau's attributes and course fit rating. click the screenshot to use the interactive model yourself. Data is available in my course fit manual which can be downloaded via above links

Tony Finau is showing progressive form at the Farmers Insurance Open with a t6 followed by a t2 the last couple of events there. As you can see above he has a course fit rating of 9.19 but his fade off the tee and high ball flight from approaches is perfect for the South Course here. 4 rounds instead of 3 on the South is also of benefit to Finau who performs best and has his biggest edge on the field on tough last man standing type courses. He's available around the 28/1 mark with extra places and is a standout bet this week for me along with Bryson

Viktor Hovland impressed earlier this year on Torrey's South course and indeed was a lot closer to Patrick Reed coming down the stretch. Reed won this event with a masterclass in scrambling which won't be sustainable this week at the US Open. If fairways and greens are the brief even more so this week at the US Open, Viktor Hovland is definitely one I want onside. Joaquin Niemann falls under the same bracket. Niemann is a ball striking tee to green machine who has some junior success under his belt as a previous winner on the Torry Pines South course.

Two more players to complete the main staking plan are Marc Leishman and Gary Woodland. Both have expressed a liking for Tony Pines. Leish is a course specialist who I backed for a number of years here, while Gary Woodland has shown glimpses here. He owns the perfect fit for the South Course with his left to right ball flight and prodigious length off the tee. Of course Gary is another previous US Open Champion.

I'll give a quick mention for the returning to form Bernd Wiesberger - a recent winner in Europe. Bernd is another I think the course should suit and he's performed admirably in majors in the past on US soil. I think quotes of 250/1 each way are less than flattering and he's worth a bet outright EW, and each way in the first round leader market.

US Open 2021 Tips:


Please note: all weekly Euro/PGA tour tips, advice and sub market plays are available through my  members mailing list  - the tips below were sent out Monday afternoon

Tip 1: Bryson deChambeau 18/1 EW
Tip 2: Tony Finau 28/1 EW
Tip 3: Viktor Hovland 25/1 EW
Tip 4: Joaquin Niemann 66/1 EW
Tip 5: Marc Leishman 70/1 EW
Tip 6: Gary Woodland 80/1 EW
Tip 7: Bernd Wiesberger 250/1 EW


NEW: my book "ANGLES & EDGES" has been getting plenty of good feedback. It covers everything in 15 years of golf betting & beating the markets and will be a good read for US Open week - Take a look:


Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.