Wells Fargo Championship Preview, Rankings and Ratings - Big Willy Style

Quail Hollow is one of my favourite gaffs to profile for and a strong field lines up once again for the Wells Fargo Championship. A certain Will Zalatoris has connections here in terms of a support network / team and having gone to college at Wake Forest. You'll see Zalatoris' course fit rating later in the preview but tee to green, and even around the green, there's no more suitable test on the PGA Tour for Will's game than Quail Hollow

Below are my rankings (in order), ratings and key course info for the Wells Fargo championship. I've added some course fit numbers for the top 10. The odds are what I think are a fair reflection, priced to 100% (no margin, done early Monday mornings)....

Wells Fargo Championship Odds Chart

Quail Hollow Course information......

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Key metrics / premiums: Quail Hollow

My course fit model screenshot above also shows Will Zalatoris' course fit rating of 8.90 for Quail hollow. He's docked points for on the green performance but take that with a pinch of salt - arguably he should be around a 9.5 (tee to green game). You can click the image or link to use the interactive version of my course fit model. All player profiles with the accurate attribute ratings are available in my profiling manual
We can see total driving is the real premium at Quail. Bermuda specialists have an advantage as do those with a draw (not as much nowadays). A high towering flight from shorter iron approaches into elevated greens is also key. This is why Rory, Thomas and similar styles really thrive around Quail. Zalatoris falls under this bracket and he is my headline bet here.

Keeping with the theme of Willies, Will Gordon was one that attention was drawn to when researching the total driving stats the last 2 seasons. I think this type of test could suit the big hitter at a huge price. He is 150s in the FRL market, 300+ in the outright and as high as 14s in the top 20 market....

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Note: All weekly course fit numbers can be computed using my course fit profiling manual below. My mailing list is where to get all my weekly selections from the PGA and European Tours. We are on a mahoosive heater with Olesen (FRL) Burns, and Burmester adding to recent winners like Cink 150s, and Matt Jones 80s

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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