NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

Valspar Championship rankings, ratings and course information

Next stop on the PGA Tour is the Valspar Championship from Innisbrook, Copperhead, where course specialist Paul Casey defends. Corey Conners and Charl Schwartzel are standing out for me here on early look - 1 in terms of price (Charl) and 1 in terms of cheeky favouritism and course fit. Charl is always on the radar at Copperhead if playing well, and Corey Conners is 1 of those I have in my course fit profiling manual as one to watch at this place. Conners' price is not what I expected and the win part slightly negative EV, but still maybe not a bad EW bet as long as you're getting the extra places.

My Valspar Championship odds chart showing my fair estimated odds (to 100%) and my ranking of the top 20 vs the field is below. You can see by comparing my odds to the bookmakers or Betfair that I think Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Charl and Adam Hadwin are underrated by the market

Keep scrolling for all relevant course information........

Valspar championship top 20 vs the field odds and rankings



See my:

New golf betting book "ANGLES & EDGES" - Click here for details/order 

Course fit player and course profiling manual - Click here for details

Nicspicks' members email listJoin here


Innisbrook Copperhead premiums/ key metrics
 

The model screenshot above shows Corey Conners' course fit rating of 8.53, and all key metrics and weightings needed for Copperhead. You can click on the image to use the interactive version of the model. All the player's data as well as individual course data can be found in my course fit profiling manual  (click link) for the golf betting 2021-22 seasons. The manual has over 140 player and course profiles.

As you can see, tee to green, Conners is almost the perfect fit for Copperhead. 2 things come to mind - if he has a good week with the irons he won't need to scramble too much, and also the green surrounds are pretty thick rough which gives the bad chippers more of a chance than from off the tight grass.

Par 5s at Copperhead are what I call card wreckers. We see more dropped shots on these par 5s than most courses and they are not great birdie opps. We also see more short putts/tiddlers missed here than most courses, bar maybe Riviera.

All fancies and more relevant info is sent out weekly through the members email. Tenerife Open thoughts and fancies went out on Monday. You can join below.


if you liked this type of preview and want to learn more about golf betting and how I do things, my new book on all things golf betting: "ANGLES & EDGES" is now available to buy - now also on Kindle. Click image below to check it out on amazon

See my:

New golf betting book "ANGLES & EDGES" - Click here for details/order 

Course fit player and course profiling manual - Click here for details

Nicspicks' members email list - Join here

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.