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Valspar Championship rankings, ratings and course information

Next stop on the PGA Tour is the Valspar Championship from Innisbrook, Copperhead, where course specialist Paul Casey defends. Corey Conners and Charl Schwartzel are standing out for me here on early look - 1 in terms of price (Charl) and 1 in terms of cheeky favouritism and course fit. Charl is always on the radar at Copperhead if playing well, and Corey Conners is 1 of those I have in my course fit profiling manual as one to watch at this place. Conners' price is not what I expected and the win part slightly negative EV, but still maybe not a bad EW bet as long as you're getting the extra places.

My Valspar Championship odds chart showing my fair estimated odds (to 100%) and my ranking of the top 20 vs the field is below. You can see by comparing my odds to the bookmakers or Betfair that I think Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Charl and Adam Hadwin are underrated by the market

Keep scrolling for all relevant course information........

Valspar championship top 20 vs the field odds and rankings



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Innisbrook Copperhead premiums/ key metrics
 

The model screenshot above shows Corey Conners' course fit rating of 8.53, and all key metrics and weightings needed for Copperhead. You can click on the image to use the interactive version of the model. All the player's data as well as individual course data can be found in my course fit profiling manual  (click link) for the golf betting 2021-22 seasons. The manual has over 140 player and course profiles.

As you can see, tee to green, Conners is almost the perfect fit for Copperhead. 2 things come to mind - if he has a good week with the irons he won't need to scramble too much, and also the green surrounds are pretty thick rough which gives the bad chippers more of a chance than from off the tight grass.

Par 5s at Copperhead are what I call card wreckers. We see more dropped shots on these par 5s than most courses and they are not great birdie opps. We also see more short putts/tiddlers missed here than most courses, bar maybe Riviera.

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See my:

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