Thoughts and best bets on the Zurich Classic and Gran Canaria

This week is a little different on the golf betting schedule with a new venue for the Gran Canaria Open on the European Tour, and Stateside we have a team event at the Zurich Classic from TPC Louisiana. I thought it might be a semi quiet week after the Stewart Cink highs, but on closer inspection of the markets, I quite like them. 

There's one specific team at the Zurich that looks made for the Ryder Cup fourballs. That's the big hitting duo of Cameron champ and Tony Finau and they take centre stage on day 1 in the first round leader market at 22/1 EW.  Day 1 is the fourballs and as I implied, this sets up for the bombers and par breaking machines which takes me onto my best bet of the week in terms of value....

This team of JB Holmes and Robert Garrigus are two of the finest 1st round leader machines individually - just imagine what they can do together in a fourball on a good day. The probability they'll have a good day is a different story but it's not ~1% as the odds of 100/1 imply! A decent day and they'll invade the places.

I am liking the team of Brendon Todd and Chris Kirk in the outright here at around 20/1. 2 guys that can dovetail nicely with similar games, minimising errors and setting up lots of birdie chances.

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I think Sam Horsfield is the favourite for the Gran Canaria Open. I'm not really getting the prices on Rozner. Winning a couple of mediocre events and beating Bryson in an 18 hole match doesn't make him a short priced fave in this field in my book. Sam loves a birdie fest and a resort course falls into his wheelhouse. He has been bouncing into top form recently after injury troubles. Started terribly last week in bad weather in Austria but probably not many were better over the last 54 holes.

20s EW with extra places is a fine bet. 40s ew in the FRL if that takes your fancy.

Alejandro Canizares at 125/1 EW and ~100/1 ew FRL, 5/1 top 20 is my best bet here. Canizares challenged strongly in Austria last week and is known to come out of the blocks fast on occasion. What gets me most though is that Alejandro grew up playing all his golf on terrain such as this, and familiarity and the short length of the track will suit him just nicely.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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