The Masters 2021 Preview, Tips, Rankings And Ratings - Patrick Cantlay to show his ability

Evening all, something a little bit different this year for The Masters where I've compiled 3 different ratings (progressive form, course fit and ability) using my course fit manual and model, and averaged them out to give me the rankings, in order, of the top 40 most likely to win The Masters according to the most recent and relevant official stats. I've also added the expected strokes gained re course fit numbers

My own actual rankings and fair odds estimations can be found in the screenshot of my Masters 2021 odds chart further down the post which of course takes into account and shows how important psychological factors are when looking for the winner in a golf event.  Some serious work has gone into the manual compiling all these stats to give maximum efficiency, so the ratings chart should be a strong guide and reference point. Any shares of this post on Twitter etc would be greatly appreciated.

Course info and key metrics for Augusta can also be found throughout the post. Also, if you haven't seen it yet take a second to have a browse of my new book on golf betting below.....

New: My golf betting book "ANGLES & EDGES" is now available in print format (paperback) through the Amazon button/image below. Or you can order the digital eBook version from the blog here (click link). Again, shares and feedback on twitter for the book are greatly appreciated.


As you can see there are some surprises thrown up by the rankings but overall it looks solid with all the big boys at the front. Jordan for me is well too short when we weigh in the other non-statistical variables. You'll see where I actually rank him in my odds chart further down. Victor Perez is a real standout and my dark horse this week. I like Victor at around 33s EW in the Top European market and 80s ew in the first round leader market. 

We also as mentioned have the number of shots each player would be expected to gain per round on average according to their course fit numbers. This is weighed against what would be deemed a neutral course for them. It's not perfect yet but it's a strong guide based on years of research, empirical evidence and relevant stats recorded.

Augusta Course information ...

Alert: As always you can get my weekly PGA and European Tour selections direct by email through the members mailing list - click here. It doesn't take a lot to join
The screenshot of my course fit profiling model below shows the key metric weightings and premiums for Augusta National along with Jordan Spieth's course fit rating. If you click the model you can use the interactive version. It's best to use the rating inputs from my manual which is available below the model image

(Click the model screenshot to use the interactive version)

Nicspicks eBook - click image for details or to buy

All of these ratings can be computed using my course fit profiling manual   (shown above) each week. For best results on each players course fit numbers for the golf tournament in question, input the player attribute ratings from my manual. It costs £13.99 (discounted)

Here are my actual rankings and combined percentages for the Masters 2021:

I rate Patrick Cantlay as the best bet this year in terms of positive expected value and potential ability to realise your equity. You can see I don't give the field beyond the top 30 much of a chance (~10% combined), with over 50% taken by my top 10

Course info......

At Augusta we are always looking for a dynamic player with prodigious length off the tee, a strong mentality and good proximity with the irons. A right to left shot shape is an advantage, and the ability to come in high with approaches. Players strong in holing out from 5-15 feet should prevail. Par 5 performance usually proves key when looking at the best fit for who will win the Masters.

The course - Augusta National, par 72 7,475 yards

Key features: Wide landing areas between a strong treeline laden with pinestraw. No rough to speak of, either along fairways or around the surfaces. Large multi-tiered undulating bentgrass greens, usually playing over 13' on the stimp. Generally fast and firm conditions but two out of the last 8 or so editions have seen a softer set up. Amen corner - a tough trio of holes around the turn that can make or break a round.

Premium on: length off the tee, approach shot accuracy (potential second shot course). Putting from 5-15 feet, par 5 performance.
Make sure to click below to have a browse of my new golf betting book "ANGLES & EDGES" for Masters week...
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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