RBC Heritage Tips and Info - Time for Matt Fitz to step up

The RBC Heritage sees a stellar field in 2021 which isn't usually the case in the wind down to the Masters. Harbour Town takes a very particular type of player so the presence of a lot of big names taking up a lot of book percentage is great for the bettor. There is a myriad of players further down the betting making the RBC Heritage more a case of value town than Harbour Town. These type of events are great for backing high odds outsiders in the first round leader market and settling on the couch Thursday evening with a chicken ball special and a few beers!

Below I have the usual key course info and numbers associated with my profiling manual. No rankings and ratings this week as I'm a little pressed for time.... but the RBC Heritage profile page shows a number of players to keep an eye out for. Matt Fitz tops that bill.......

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Harbour Town Course information 

Alert: As always you can get my weekly PGA and European Tour selections direct by email through the members mailing list - click here. It doesn't take a lot to join. There are a number of value players I like this week for the RBC Heritage, and a few for the Austria Open. The year so far has been great with winners such as Matt Jones (FRL and outright), Max Homa, and Sergio Garcia (FRL)

The premium at Harbour Town is massively on placement off the tee into tight twisty fairways. I tried to be smart last year by backing some of the lesser accurate ball strikers, with less than driver in hand, and it backfired. Approach is important but the tiny greens will inevitably have a high miss % and so short game skills are vital. Wind is likely to blow.

The screenshot below shows the premiums and key metrics for Harbour Town in my course fit profiling model. It also shows the attribute ratings of my top bet of the week - Matt Fitzpatrick, combining for a course fit score of 9.2 here

Key Metric Weightings at Harbour Town golf links
(Note: you can Click the model screenshot to use the interactive version)

Key Features

The Harbour Town profile page from my course fit profiling manual below

Nicspicks course fit profiling eBook - click image for details

The weekly course fit numbers and various course key metrics can be attained each week via my course fit profiling manual   shown above. For best results on each players course fit numbers for the golf tournament in question, input the player attribute ratings from my manual.

Below shows Matt Fitzpatrick's profile page from my course fit profiling manual

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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