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2021 Farmers Insurance Open rankings tips and key info


Rory McIlroy heads my rankings and is well suited to the Torrey Pines venue

My odds chart with estimated fair prices and rankings for the Farmers Insurance Open is below.....

Farmers Insurance Open Target plr Profile

Bombers. Bombers. Bombers. Total driving (long and straight) a big advantage but ultimately the further out from the tips, the better. Then, a great short game gets it done on and around pretty large fiery Poa (south) surfaces. The cream always rises to the top. Par 5s must be taken advantage of on the South Course.

The screenshot below shows the premiums and key metrics at Torrey Pines South Course for the Farmers Insurance Open. It also shows the course fit profile of Jon Rahm at a whopping 9.5

Click image to use interactive model

The screenshot below is an image of my Farmers Insurance Open odds chart. Click to see the full rankings in spreadsheet. All course fit numbers are attainable using my course fit profiling manual

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New: 40 profiles added, ability 
rankings added. Stats updated
My player profiling and course fit manual above supplies all the data for the top players across the European and PGA Tours. It lists all the metrics and weightings for the various courses. Using this data you can plug the numbers into the interactive model above and get an accurate course fit rating for whatever player on whatever course
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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