Golf Betting: US Open Tips From Winged Foot Where Jon Rahm Can Capture Maiden Major

John Rahm, 2nd in total driving in 2020, can power his way to victory at Winged Foot 

The US Open at Winged Foot brings back memories of around the time it all began for me. I had a few quid EW on Geoff Ogilvy, and of my more vivid memories of the 2006 US Open, the contenders all fell over the line in what was a war of attrition at a brutal Winged Foot. I got more serious about my golf betting around this stage after being enthralled in this event. 

Geoff was one I highly rated for about 5 years and he was usually overpriced. Indeed he is one of my biggest winners in the long term book. The top 5 in the 06 US Open was a mix of sprayers and plotters but there was an overall theme on the leaderboard of mental fortitude and grinders. The best at the time were the guys who featured. I expect no less this season where there will be no pretenders come the 72nd hole on Sunday.

 “With its wonderfully challenging green complexes and dogleg holes that emphasize proper placement off the tee, Winged Foot offers the best players in the world a spectacular test of golf,” - Mike Davis.

Here are my US Open 20 vs the field rankings with fair odds to 100%, and course fit numbers. If you click to the spreadsheet and sort in order of course fit rating, you'll see Rory has a significant edge on the field here. He will likely be a drifter this week on the exchange pre off so this is perhaps an angle to watch

(click link to access spreadsheet)

The course: Winged Foot West Course, par 70, yards 7,477

Key features

The track this week will be probably the toughest the players face all year. It's long with average width fairways and brutal rough tee to green. It features dog legs on most holes so emphasis is really on the best drivers that can shape it both ways (mainly more right to left) rather than one way big hitters 

There will be a huge premium on approaches from distance into large sloping back to front greens (Bent/Poa blend), with run up false fronts. Deep bunkers and thick rough surround the greens and this week distance control will be pivotal given these false fronts and raised backs of the greens. Go long and you'll bound off the back drops and into the thick spinach. Good luck getting up and down. Many greens are rectangular in structure. They are extremely undulating and slick (over 13' on the stimp). 

Target player profile: Your Tee to green expert grinders will be the last men standing

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Below is a screenshot of my course fit model showing my key metric weightings for Winged Foot at the 2020 US Open. If interested more in this, make sure you''ve seen my course and player profiling eBook

Nicspicks' Premium weightings for Winged Foot

note: you can insert these weightings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my course fit profiling manual (or your own estimates) to get extremely accurate course fit scores

Course correlation: Not correlated as such but I expect Winged Foot to play similarly to the likes of Harding Park and more so Olympia Fields. I'd pay close attention to those two recent leaderboards.

Chicken Nuggets: Any shorter hitter featuring here down the stretch come sunday will likely be an outlier in terms of form. They will be at a big disadvantage at Winged Foot in 2020
They said:The golf course gets tough on the first tee and never gets any easier,” “That’s why it’s a great golf course. You can’t make a mistake and get away with it here.” - Jack Nicklaus 

 "A controlled shot to a closely-guarded green is the surest test of any man's golf," AW Tillinghast

US Open Selected Tips

All tips, advice and sub market plays from both the Euro and PGA Tour are only available through the weekly members email. Make sure to join (a beer ) if you want all selections and key insight 

Note: The model and player ratings are formed from my  Course fit profiling Ebook which you can check out in detail or buy through the link. 

Tip 1: Jon Rahm 10/1 EW
2nd in total driving in 2020, current world no.2 Rahm has been to play Winged Foot in the last few weeks and he has the perfect game for the test. He plays predominantly with a fade but can easily draw the ball and shape it any way, high or low, somewhat reflected in his total driving stats. Rahm has 2 wins in his last handful or so of starts and comes here 6-1-6 current form wise
Screenshot above shows Jon Rahm Profile from my eBook

Course fit-o-meter rating: 8.93
progressive form rating: 10
price value: 7
Player ability: 9.08
Overall value bet strength: 8.75

Tip 2: Tony Finau 33/1 EW / FRL
Once again Tony is overpriced in the big events. It's no coincidence he is up there repeatedly on the biggest and toughest courses. His tee to green game is up there with the best, and his ability to grind it out and make par. Hypothetically the more rounds they play at Winged Foot the closer Tony would get to the summit. 5th at Olympia Fields shooting -4 on Sunday when everyone was struggling for par.

course fit-o-meter rating: 8.41
progressive form rating: 8.86
price value: 8.5
Player ability: 8.33
Overall value bet strength: 8.53

Tip 3: Adam Scott 50/1 EW / FRL
Scotty has come more onto my radar as the week has gone on and the drift continues. The more I refer to the US Open at winged foot being a war of attrition the more I think about Adam Scott's record at Riviera which is exactly the same type of test. Essentially Scotty tee to greens his opponents into submission while the whole field 3 and 4 putts. Tony Finau-esque. He had a nice warm up at Olympia Fields and tourney no. 4 could be optimal timing.

course fit-o-meter rating: 8.62
progressive form rating: 7.43
price value: 8.5
Player ability: 8.82 
Overall value bet strength: 8.34

Tip 4: Bernd Wiesberger 150/1+ Top Euro EW 50/1 / FRL (best 72 hole score market)
Bernd is one of the European Tour's undercover tee to green expert ball strikers when it comes to the world stage. He's a serial winner with strong mentality who has shown in majors before a squeak of what might be to come. He's plenty big in a myriad of markets this week to show his ability. Bernd's low ball flight fairway finders off the tee and his long iron ability (rank: 10/10 in my profiling manual) will stand him in good stead here and he could be a dark horse.

course fit-o-meter rating: 8.7
progressive form rating: 7.86
price value: 10
Player ability: 8.56
Overall value bet strength: 8.78

US Open Outsiders and sub market plays can be found through my Nicspicks
  weekly members email #FRLdar

The weekly selections and ratings are bred from my Course fit profiling manual ebook which you can check out in detail or buy through the link.. Player and course profiles in the eBook also supply data you can use to plug into my interactive course fit ratings model at the bottom of this website. The ebook is designed to flag up potential winners well ahead of all yearly tournaments

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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