Andalucia Masters and Tour Championship Tips - Kaymer set to strike

Martin Kaymer a course specialist at Valderrama

Not too much interest for me this week. The Tour championship has become a bit farcical from a betting perspective with the handicap system and the books focusing on this for their main markets. The European Tour markets the last few weeks look like they've been put together using a random number generator. Five players opened at 14/1 for the Andalucia Masters and there are ten players 25s and under in a B grade Euro event.

Below I've churned out ratings, profiles and course fit numbers for 3 players I like at the Andalucia Masters, and 1 standout play from the Tour championship:

The course premium key metric weightings for Valderrama and the Andalucia Masters are below in the screenshot from my course fit model. If you want to try this model yourself it's interactive and at the bottom of this page/website. It's a very simple model born from logic and common sense. I'm not a data head

note: you can insert these weightings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my course fit profiling manual (or your own estimates) to get extremely accurate course fit scores

Andalucia Masters Tips

Tip 1: Martin Kaymer 14/1 EW
course fit-o-meter rating: 8.31
progressive form rating: 7.57
price value: 6
Player ability: 8.13
Overall value bet strength: 7.5

Martin Kaymer's Player profile from my course fit manual

Tip 2: Jason Scrivener 28/1 EW
course fit-o-meter rating: 8.38
progressive form rating: 9.71
price value: 7
Player ability: 7.8 (est)
Overall value bet strength: 8.22

fig above shows Scrivener's high progressive form rating

Tip 3: Soren Kjeldsen 100/1 EW
course fit-o-meter rating: 9
progressive form rating: 6.43
price value: 8
Player ability: 7.4 (est)
Overall value bet strength: 7.7

Tour championship

Note: The weekly selections and ratings are bred from my Course fit and player profiling manual Ebook which you can check out in detail or buy through the link.. see Kjeldsen course fit rating below

Tip 1: Kevin Kisner 33/1 EW (best 72 hole score market)
course fit-o-meter rating: 8.7
progressive form rating: 10
price value: 7.5
Player ability: 8.17
Overall value bet strength: 8.6

screenshot above shows Kisners Progressive form rating

screenshot above shows Soren Kjeldsen's course fit rating for Valderrama
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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