Golf Betting: WGC Fedex ST. Jude Invitational Tips - X Marks The Spot

Xander's game looks about to peak and there are not many more suitable courses for the X-man than TPC SouthWind at the ST. Jude Invitational

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The WGC Fedex ST. Jude Invitational is a fine precursor to the first major of the year next week in San Fran. Interesting though that in what are essentially the same strength of fields (with only a few absentees of the leading players) is quite a large price discrepancy on a host of players. There are obviously reasons for this including extra place terms currently offered at ST. Jude but the more shrewd punter might be able to take advantage over the next fortnight.

Examples include DJ and Brooks who are equally as likely to win this week as they are at the PGA Championships next, yet are in the teens for the latter, while double that this week in Memphis. Both are struggling.

The likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrell Hatton, Dan Berger and Billy Horschel are wildly underpriced for the WGC Fedex ST. Jude - the latter two largely due to course history figures here at Southwind. As used to be in years past at Firestone, we can use this week's WGC as a solid guide for the PGA Championship next week.

WGC Fedex ST. Jude Invitational Target player profile

Accurate and smart with club selection off the tee. Top scrambling skills required. Iron play prominent. A classic treelined parklands track for the new WGC slot. Usually plays firm and is known as a shot makers paradise where a fine short game imagination is needed. Underrated course.

The course: TPC Southwind ( Par 70, 7,237 yards)

Key Features:

Small firm greens - big tall bushy treeline - narrow fairways - water trouble / island green - fast and firm conditions - strong par 3s - wind

Greens: Bermuda (small, 12 on stimp)
Fibre: Bermuda (2.5 inches in WGC but very penal in years previous)

Premium on (key metric weightings)
Driving accuracy (3)
Irons (2)
Scrambling (3)
Wind play (1 )
Mentality (2)
Holing out (1 )

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from my profiling manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets:

TPC Southwind was one of the most underrated courses on the schedule before taking up the WGC slot. Described as a shotmaker's paradise.

WGC Fedex ST. Jude Invitational TIPS

The weekly selections and ratings are bred from my Course fit profiling manual which you can check out in detail or buy through the link.. The player and course profiles in the eBook supply data for you to plug into my interactive course fit ratings model at the bottom of this website

Tip 1: Xander Schauffele 22/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.34
Price value: 6
Progressive form rating: 8.43
Course fit-o-meter: 7.8
Overall value bet strength: 7.64

example screenshot above shows Xander Schauffele's player profile from the
Course fit profiling manual

Tip 2: Webb Simpson 22/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.83
Price value: 6
Progressive form rating: 8
Course fit-o-meter: 8.75
Overall value bet strength: 7.9

Tip 3: Patrick Reed 35/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.97
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 8
Course fit-o-meter: 9.16 (see fig 1.a below)
Overall value bet strength: 8.4

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Fig 1(a) Patrick Reed TPC Southwind course fit rating

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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