Rocket Mortgage Classic Golf Betting Tips - Fowler To Blast Off in Detroit

Rickie Fowler looks overpriced at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on a Detroit golf course that fits his game

This is the 2nd edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic - a low scoring birdie fest won with a blitzing by Nate Lashley last year on a score of minus 25. The field is the 1st since the restart that has been thinned out, and the market is a potentially exploitable one.

Hopefully the leaderboard won't be so bunched as the last few weeks. The course is a more straightforward test than the 3 tricked up renewals we've seen on the new schedule, and Bryson is now a worthy favourite on a track where we will get to see the real benefit of his new power off the tee. Dustin Johnson won at a big price (relatively speaking) and I'm looking to attack this angle here with top names supposedly out of form a little bit inflated in the market.

Note: I've posted my Rocket Mortgage top 20 vs the field odds over on my new Patreon Platform which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - check it out

Rocket Mortgage Classic Target player profile: Big hitting birdie maker familiar with Donald Ross designs

The course: Detroit Golf Club (North course), Par 72, 7,335 yards

Key Features

Tall pines frame the fairways, some short par 4s, rough should be thicker along fairways this year. Donald Ross designs incorporate back to front sloping greens with run offs. Circa 12ft on the stimp

Greens - Pao, small - avg just over 5,000 sqft

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving Distance (2)
Par Breakers (3)
Par 5 performance (2)
Lag putting (1)
holing out (2)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from the manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets: JT Poston hit the record equalling low round 63 here last year (tied it with Lashley) and also went bogey free over 72 holes to win at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield

Rocket Mortgage Classic TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings, and player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Rickie Fowler 33/1 EW / FRL
(see fig. 1a below)

Player ability: 8.97 ( see manual)
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 5.86
Course fit-o-meter: 9.45
Overall value bet strength: 8.32

Tip 2: Tony Finau 33/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.33
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 6.86
Course fit-o-meter: 8.65
Overall value bet strength: 7.71

Tip 3: Brandt Snedeker 66/1 EW /FRL

Player ability: 8.21
Price value: 10
Progressive form rating: 7.3
Course fit-o-meter: 7.6
Overall value bet strength: 8.28

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fig 1a: example screenshot above shows Rickie Fowler's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down

Winning Golf Betting Tips:

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.