Rocket Mortgage Classic Golf Betting Tips - Fowler To Blast Off in Detroit

Rickie Fowler looks overpriced at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on a Detroit golf course that fits his game

This is the 2nd edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic - a low scoring birdie fest won with a blitzing by Nate Lashley last year on a score of minus 25. The field is the 1st since the restart that has been thinned out, and the market is a potentially exploitable one.

Hopefully the leaderboard won't be so bunched as the last few weeks. The course is a more straightforward test than the 3 tricked up renewals we've seen on the new schedule, and Bryson is now a worthy favourite on a track where we will get to see the real benefit of his new power off the tee. Dustin Johnson won at a big price (relatively speaking) and I'm looking to attack this angle here with top names supposedly out of form a little bit inflated in the market.

Note: I've posted my Rocket Mortgage top 20 vs the field odds over on my new Patreon Platform which provides extra exclusive content to supporters - check it out

Rocket Mortgage Classic Target player profile: Big hitting birdie maker familiar with Donald Ross designs

The course: Detroit Golf Club (North course), Par 72, 7,335 yards

Key Features

Tall pines frame the fairways, some short par 4s, rough should be thicker along fairways this year. Donald Ross designs incorporate back to front sloping greens with run offs. Circa 12ft on the stimp

Greens - Pao, small - avg just over 5,000 sqft

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving Distance (2)
Par Breakers (3)
Par 5 performance (2)
Lag putting (1)
holing out (2)

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage along with player ratings from the manual to get course fit scores

Chicken Nuggets: JT Poston hit the record equalling low round 63 here last year (tied it with Lashley) and also went bogey free over 72 holes to win at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield

Rocket Mortgage Classic TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings, and player game styles from my 2020 course fit profiling manual. Click the link to check out what it's about. There is also an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out.

Tip 1: Rickie Fowler 33/1 EW / FRL
(see fig. 1a below)

Player ability: 8.97 ( see manual)
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 5.86
Course fit-o-meter: 9.45
Overall value bet strength: 8.32

Tip 2: Tony Finau 33/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 8.33
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 6.86
Course fit-o-meter: 8.65
Overall value bet strength: 7.71

Tip 3: Brandt Snedeker 66/1 EW /FRL

Player ability: 8.21
Price value: 10
Progressive form rating: 7.3
Course fit-o-meter: 7.6
Overall value bet strength: 8.28

Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
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fig 1a: example screenshot above shows Rickie Fowler's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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