RBC Heritage golf betting tips - Correlating form on the island

Form at last week's Colonial event should carry over to Harbour Town golf links, and Gary Woodland is tipped to ball strike his way into contention

RBC Heritage tips, golf betting tips, Hilton head island, Harbour town tips

The PGA tour returned last week and I was a little surprised to see the sharpness of many of the players. I feel confident enough we can pretty much pick up where we left off before the hiatus now, and what's more, we have a stretch of golf where the courses are correlating, and there's no better precursor to guide us for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links than Colonial, especially as the fields are very similar. Harbour Town is the tightest track on tour and will be a very similar test to Colonial so form from last week becomes more heavily weighted than usual

RBC Heritage Target player profile: Smart plotter style player, accurate off the tee and equipped with shot making / good scrambling qualities around the tiny greens. Experience counts for a lot and course management is key here. Strong wind pedigree a bonus.

The course: par 71, 7,099 yards

Key Features - see manual info

Treelined with overhanging branches - Doglegs - Small greens with sleepers, penal bunkers and water. Par 3 card wreckers. Wind is often up on the island.

Greens: Bermuda (small)
Fibre: Bermuda

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving accuracy (3)
Scrambling (3)
Holing out (2)
Wind play (3)
Approach (2)
Par breakers (2)

(note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage)

Chicken nuggets: Players talk about keeping the ball underneath the treeline here when the wind blows - the likes of Branden Grace is brilliant at this kind of golf

RBC Heritage TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings and
2020 course fit profiling manual

Tip 1 : Gary Woodland 35/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.39 (manual rating)
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 9.57
Course fit-o-meter: 7.73
Overall value bet strength: 8.67/10

example screenshot above shows Gary Woodland's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself

Tip 2: Patrick Reed 28/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.97 (manual rating)
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.86
Course fit-o-meter: 9
Overall value bet strength: 8.46/10

Tip 3: Branden Grace 50/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.09 (manual rating)
Price value: 6.5
Progressive form rating: 7.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.02
Overall value bet strength: 7.5/10

Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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