RBC Heritage golf betting tips - Correlating form on the island

Form at last week's Colonial event should carry over to Harbour Town golf links, and Gary Woodland is tipped to ball strike his way into contention

RBC Heritage tips, golf betting tips, Hilton head island, Harbour town tips

The PGA tour returned last week and I was a little surprised to see the sharpness of many of the players. I feel confident enough we can pretty much pick up where we left off before the hiatus now, and what's more, we have a stretch of golf where the courses are correlating, and there's no better precursor to guide us for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links than Colonial, especially as the fields are very similar. Harbour Town is the tightest track on tour and will be a very similar test to Colonial so form from last week becomes more heavily weighted than usual

RBC Heritage Target player profile: Smart plotter style player, accurate off the tee and equipped with shot making / good scrambling qualities around the tiny greens. Experience counts for a lot and course management is key here. Strong wind pedigree a bonus.

The course: par 71, 7,099 yards

Key Features - see manual info

Treelined with overhanging branches - Doglegs - Small greens with sleepers, penal bunkers and water. Par 3 card wreckers. Wind is often up on the island.

Greens: Bermuda (small)
Fibre: Bermuda

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving accuracy (3)
Scrambling (3)
Holing out (2)
Wind play (3)
Approach (2)
Par breakers (2)

(note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage)

Chicken nuggets: Players talk about keeping the ball underneath the treeline here when the wind blows - the likes of Branden Grace is brilliant at this kind of golf

RBC Heritage TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings and
2020 course fit profiling manual

Tip 1 : Gary Woodland 35/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.39 (manual rating)
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 9.57
Course fit-o-meter: 7.73
Overall value bet strength: 8.67/10

example screenshot above shows Gary Woodland's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself

Tip 2: Patrick Reed 28/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.97 (manual rating)
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 8.86
Course fit-o-meter: 9
Overall value bet strength: 8.46/10

Tip 3: Branden Grace 50/1 EW (8) / FRL

Player ability: 8.09 (manual rating)
Price value: 6.5
Progressive form rating: 7.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.02
Overall value bet strength: 7.5/10

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

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