NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

Golf Betting Tips: Joaquin set to fly at the Travelers Championship



Simmering Niemann a very strong course fit for TPC River Highlands

The major type fields continue this week for the Travelers Championship and the first thing that strikes me is that many of the front end of the market look decent value EW bets. The RBC Heritage continues in the same vein of little shots separating the top 30 or so in the market and realising your equity on bets is proving harder and harder. I tweeted at one stage that I was sweating a top 20 bet on JT Poston, and he was -15 at the time. This will settle down a little as the fields become less stacked.

Another thing that hit me at Harbour Town was just how much the no fans affected stray balls. This was obviously going to be the case but the likes of Patrick Reed last week was really punished for being slightly errant and in hindsight my selections were maybe a little off the temporary profile.

The Travelers Championship is an event I enjoy betting on and TPC River Highlands is a track that will suit a lot of the players, which is why numerous big names that don't usually travel there will enjoy the week. The main variable to note is the run offs and shortsides here are quite simply a no go area. I've noted in the past the likes of Justin Thomas was far too aggressive at short side flags on the tiered surfaces with run offs and just couldn't get up and down when he missed. The depth of the rough here is variable and may dictate the scoring.

Travelers championship Target player profile

Strong driver, accurate with approaches and short irons. Decent course management needed as firing at some pins will leave you short sided and dead. Par breakers.

The course: TPC River Highlands: (Par 70, 6,841 yards)

Key Features

Thick rough - Water - Good lines off the markers - tiered greens with run offs - mound surround - elevation changes - short par 4s

Greens: Mainly Poa (look like a bent texture)
Fibre: (mix - very thick and lush in 2019)

Premium on (key metric weightings)

Total driving efficiency (3)
Proximity to the hole (approach) (3)
Irons (2)
Holing out (1 )
Par breakers (2)
Scrambling (1 )

note: you can insert these ratings in the course fit model at the bottom of the webpage..

Travelers Championship TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings and
2020 course fit profiling manual
.

Please note there is an interactive model and a course fit / player profile section at the bottom of this website to check out. You can see my Travelers Championship Odds Chart here, equipped with course fit numbers and different ratings such as overall bet strength

Tip 1: Abraham Ancer 35/1 EW / FRL

Player ability: 7.78 (manual rating)
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 9
Course fit-o-meter: 7.78
Overall value bet strength: 8

Tip 2: Sergio Garcia 50/1 EW / FRL
(see fig 1b below)

Player ability: 8.55 (manual rating)
Price value: 8.5
Progressive form rating: 8
Course fit-o-meter: 8.88
Overall value bet strength: 8.5

Tip 3: Joaquin Niemann 50/1 EW / FRL
(see fig 1a below)

Player ability: 8.04 (manual rating)
Price value: 7.5
Progressive form rating: 8.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.6
Overall value bet strength: 8.11


Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
members mailing list. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. As an alternative, You can also follow and support me on Patreon and all support is very much appreciated.


fig 1a: example screenshot above shows Joaquin Niemann's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website - try it out yourself by scrolling down


fig 1b: example screenshot above shows Sergio Garcia's Profile from my course fit profiling manual - see player profiles on site

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.