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Golf Betting Tips: Charles Schwab Challenge - Ryan fits the bill


Ryan Palmer will be practising hard at colonial when the golf clubs open up and he'll have an even bigger edge than usual on the field at the charles Schwab Challenge

Tags: Charles Schwab Challenge tips, Charles schwab Challenge, Charles Schwab golf betting tips

The PGA Tour is set to come back mid June (11th) at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. One man will be licking his lips at that more than most and it's home man and course specialist Ryan Palmer. Palmer has a massive edge here year in year out at the Charles Schwab Challenge and it shows.

He knows the sight lines off the tee and where to attack and when to play safe. He knows the greens and winds at every time of the year. In 2020 with all the guys out of competitive practice before the event, Palmer will be practising and honing his game at Colonial CC and this is a strong betting angle worth looking at ahead of the restart.

There should be plenty of value angles at the Charles Schwab Challenge with a strong field assembled, but many of them haven't been playing, and Colonial is a great track to find out players who are not sharp. There have been mini tours in action in the last month or so and a number of pros have been playing competitively. I'm expecting a strange leaderboard after 72 holes of play at the Charles Schwab Challenge, with some elite players missing the cut, and lesser names in contention down the Sunday stretch.

Charles Schwab Challenge Target Player Profile: Accurate tee to green with a hot flat stick over the four days gets the job done at Colonial


The course:

Colonial Country Club par 70, 7,209 yards

key features:

Treelined classic parkland track. Very tight with overhanging trees both sides of the fairway and getting tighter. Small greens protected by bunkering, with very narrow entrances, and false fronts.

Greens: Bentgrass (smooth)
Fibre: Bermuda (variable depth yearly)


Premium on (key metric weightings)

Driving accuracy (3)
Irons (2)
Proximity to the hole (approach) (3)
Holing out (3)
Par breakers (2)
Wind play (2)


CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE TIPS:

The weekly selections are bred from my progressive form ratings and
2020 course fit profiling manual


Tip 1: Ryan Palmer 80/1 EW / 1st round leader


This is Ryan Palmer's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website

Player ability: 8 (manual rating)
Price value: 7
Progressive form rating: 7.3
Course fit-o-meter: 8.4

Overall value bet strength: 7.7 /10


Click here to get up to £100 in free bets on Ryan Palmer & Abraham Ancer - T&Cs apply



Tip 2: Abraham Ancer EW 80/1 / 1st round leader


This is Abraham Ancer's rating from the interactive course fit profiling model at the bottom of the website ↓↓↓

Player ability: 7.8
Price value: 9
Progressive form rating: 7.86
Course fit-o-meter: 7.83

Overall value bet strength: 8.12/10


Tip 3: Tom Hoge 150/1 EW/ FRL

Player ability: 7.77
Price value: 9.5
Progressive form rating: 8
Course fit-o-meter: 8.26

Overall (value) bet strength: 8.4/10


There are a number of players in the 3 figure zone with high course fit ratings that are worth getting onside this week. Two of note are Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. No idea what Stricks has been up to but he is a course specialist who rates a 9.2 on my course fit model. The manual also points to the likes of Brian Stuard who likes a fast start. Zach is a serious bet this week for me in different markets. I'm not interested in backing shorter prices this week - prefer a watching brief, and I'm actually expecting quite a random looking leaderboard. Will have an FRL / sub market angle post up on my Patreon platform in the week with a number of persons of interest.


Please note that all tips, advice and sub market plays are available through the
members mailing list. The tips on site are free but there's an optional "buy me a beer" link below. As an alternative, You can also follow and support me on Patreon and all support is very much appreciated.


Click here to get up to £100 in free bets on Ryan Palmer & Abraham Ancer - T&Cs apply

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

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