Trades and betting angle for the API

I'm not usually one for early weather forecasts or reports but it does seem fairly certain that the AM wave will see a significant advantage at Bay Hill this year. Bay Hill is a course that generally plays significantly softer in the AM and with winds set to double up to 20mph at times later in the day, the early starters are the focus. It's usually cold early doors and the ball doesn't travel as far so targeting the longer hitters is the way forward. Run offs around the Bay Hill greens will make it very tough for players approaching the surfaces in strong winds. Another thing to note for this reason is that up to 40% of approaches here regularly are played from over 200 yards.

Rather than the usual 3 to trade, I'm going to put up 5 players and also suggest
>> backing them EW in the 1st round leader market
(click link)

The 5 players I'm trading on Betfair are:

>> Charl Schwartzel 120.00
>> Maverick McNealy 160.00
>> Harold Varner 250.00
>> Sam Burns 500.00
>> Danny Lee 440.00

All are from the early wave and as well as potential trades on Betfair I'm on EW in the 1st round leader markets. As always I generally start looking at laying some back after 18 and mainly through 36 and 54 holes if any are going well

If you're a new player and fancy playing along, click here to Open a Betfair account (aff link) and claim a free £20 bet

Bet now at
New customers only, bet up to £/€20 on the exchange and if your first bet loses, we'll refund you up to £/€20 in cash. Bets must be places in 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply

Winning Golf Betting Tips:

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here

Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.