NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Golf Betting: The 2020 Players Championship Tips: Reed the perfect fit for sawgrass

Get Greedy With Reedy. Patrick Reed has hit first gear and a slightly softer TPC Sawgrass in the new slot on the calendar sets up perfectly for his game

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Tags: Players Championship tips, the Players Championship, Players Championship golf betting tips

Players Championship Tips Guide 2020

NEW Player Promotions: First off, if you're looking for free bets promos for the Players Championship, >> Betfair Sportsbook are offering new players up to £100 in free bets. Click the link to find out more. T & Cs apply.

Players championship target player profile:

An all rounder with a top short game and steely nerve is required at the Players Championship. Big hitting is not generally required here but in 2019 the softer conditions lent themselves towards the likes of defending champion Rory McIlroy

The course - TPC Sawgrass, par 72, 7189 yards (2019)

Key features: Less than driver course. Shot shaping both ways required from tee. Pinestraw. Treelined (sparse in places). Probably the biggest risk reward course on tour. Plenty of water hazards in play including the signature par 3 17th hole and on the drivable par 4 12th. Overseeded bermuda greens and rough (lusher and softer conditions in 2019 march slot). Sub-Air systems - stimp often reaches 13+ here, and it tends to blow

Premium on: Placement from the tips. Short game (strokes gained around the green). Strategy.

Chicken nuggets for the Players Champs:

Scoring here depends on how firm or soft it plays and it can change quickly depending on wind and with the sub air systems turned on overnight. In 2016 the early late split was a massive 2 shots easier in the AM wave before the wind got up and greens dried out (just to give some perspective)

TPC Sawgrass was a a very fair test in 2019 and a great event for betting (rough, greens)

Players Championship Rankings
(est. fair win odds to 100%)
1. Rory McIlroy 10/1
2. Jon Rahm 10/1
3. Justin Thomas 14/1
4. Patrick Reed 20/1
5. Patrick Cantlay 20/1
6. Webb Simpson 20/1
7. Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
8. Bryson De Chambeau 25/1
9. Dustin Johnson 25/1
10. Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 .....

Players Championship Featured Tips : (keep scrolling down for tips)

NEW Player Promotions:: First off, if you're looking for free bets promos for the Players Championship, >> Betfair Sportsbook are offering new players up to £100 in free bets. Click the link to find out more.

Tip 1: Patrick Reed EW 33/1 Betfair Sportsbook is now a double WGC winner as well as Green Jacket winner after his almost flawless performance in Chapultpec where he displayed a short game of a genius. He also now owns a new fade shape off the tee to compliment his stock draw and this combo and the probable softer march conditions makes him a serious bet for the Players Championship. Reed ranked 14th in strokes gained around the greens in 2019, and sits 4th in strokes gained putting in 2020. He ranked 4th and 1st in those stats respectively in Mexico. Short game should separate the men from the boys at Sawgrass and Reed looks a good price.

New Player Offer: Click this link to get up to £100 in free bets on Reed and Simpson at Betfair Sportsbook - T & Cs apply.


Tip 2: Webb Simpson 25/1 EW Betfair Sportsbook has already won the Players Championship and was touted by his caddy as one to watch given his course fit for TPC Sawgrass not too long before he got the W. Webb is 3rd in the Fedex (after WGC Mexico) and picked up a win at the Phoenix Open not long ago. He ranks 36th in SG: ATG, 13th in tee to green, and 15th in putting (after WGC)

*Please note that Tips 3, 4 and 5 are available on the >> members mailing list

NEW Player Promotions: If you are betting Each Way on the Players Championship, Betfair offer extra places and up to £/€ 100 in free bets. Click this link to find out more about these offers >> ...

Players Championship market below >>
New customers only, place 5 x £/€10 bets to receive £/€20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £/€100 bonus. T&Cs apply

*Please note that Nicspicks has a members mailing list where members emails provide exclusive extra insights and advice on the week's main golf tournaments for betting, as well as all (usually 4 or 5 tips) for each event. They include my shortlists of golfers fancied for various markets and betting angles. The email consultancy service doesn't take a lot to join and it's well worthwhile. Already thrown a few big priced winners in 2020, aswell as a strong staking plan, resulting in maximising of returns.

New Player Offer: >> Click this link to back any player at Betfair Sportsbook and get up to £100 in free bets for the Players Championship 2020

Place 5 x£10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times for max £100. T&Cs apply.

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.